Live Play Data

An Offer You Can't Refuse

· Instant · Foundations (FDN)

24%

Live Inclusion

Buy on TCGplayer

Times Brought

3194

Decks Running

1619

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

56%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

An Offer You Can't Refuse sits in 24% of tracked Commander decks on Playgroup Live, and when it resolves, the caster's win rate runs +9.9 percentage points above games where the card never left the library.

An Offer You Can't Refuse is a 1-mana blue instant that counters any noncreature spell at the cost of handing the opponent two Treasure tokens. Playgroup Live tracks it in 24% of the 6864 decks that have played a recorded game, making it one of the most-played counterspells in the dataset.

The win-rate signal is the most interesting number here. Games where the card was cast show a +9.9 percentage-point lift over games where it stayed in the library, with a lower-bound confidence interval that stays positive. That is an early but consistent signal that resolving the card correlates with winning, even accounting for the two Treasures handed to the opponent. Median first cast lands on turn 7, which reflects the reality of holding up reactive mana rather than jamming it proactively. Players wait for the right target.

The commander spread is broad: 1064 distinct players have brought the card to a tracked game, and no single player accounts for more than a small fraction of instances. That breadth makes the dataset meaningfully representative of how the card actually plays across a wide range of pods and strategies.

At a glance

24% of tracked Commander decks include An Offer You Can't Refuse
26% draw rate per game, consistent with a singleton in a 100-card deck
56% of drawn copies were cast before the game ended
T7 median first-cast turn, reflecting reactive hold-up play
+9.9pp win-rate lift in games where the card resolved vs. stayed in library
1064 distinct players have brought this card to a tracked game

First-cast turn

n=467

13%

60%

T6-9

14%

T10+

Median 7 P25 5 · P75 8 · max 16

On curve 1% (4 / 467 cast on T1) Cast same turn as drawn 21%

The "good card" funnel

3204 brought · 1064 players

Brought to game

3204

Ever drawn

828

Reached battlefield

467

Still on board at game end

56%

Of 3204 copies brought to tracked games, 828 were drawn, and 467 of those were cast, with the gap between drawn and cast largely attributable to games ending before a suitable target appeared.

≥ +5.5pp

Players who cast this card win 33% of the time (n=447) , vs 23% when it never left the library (n=2057).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 37% (n=338) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +9.9pp; 95% confidence interval +5.5pp to +14.2pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

924 instances

3.5%

Library

1.8%

Battlefield

52.5%

Graveyard

8.1%

Exile

The graveyard is the expected final home for this instant after it resolves, and the data reflects that: the vast majority of cast copies end there, with only a small handful reaching the battlefield as a result of other effects.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Ms. Bumbleflower 82 decks
2 Tidus, Yuna's Guardian 53 decks
3 Vivi Ornitier 30 decks
4 Kefka, Court Mage // Kefka, Ruler of Ruin 25 decks
5 Fire Lord Azula 23 decks
6 Y'shtola, Night's Blessed 22 decks
7 Tony Stark // The Invincible Iron Man 21 decks
8 Ghyrson Starn, Kelermorph 18 decks
9 Jin Sakai, Ghost of Tsushima 17 decks
10 Sauron, the Dark Lord 17 decks

The top-commander list spans Bant, Izzet, Esper, Grixis, and mono-blue strategies, a sign that An Offer You Can't Refuse is a format-wide utility pick rather than a staple tied to any single archetype.

Frequently Asked

How often is An Offer You Can't Refuse drawn in a Commander game?

Across 2626 tracked games where the card was in the deck, it was drawn 26% of the time. That is normal for a singleton in a 100-card deck. Of 828 instances that reached a player's hand, 56% were cast before the game concluded. The remainder reflects instances where the game ended before the player found a worthwhile target, not necessarily a choice to hold the card indefinitely.

What turn does An Offer You Can't Refuse typically get cast?

Median first cast is turn 7, with the bulk of casts clustered between turns 5 and 8. This is later than the card's mana cost would suggest. As a reactive counterspell, players hold it in hand waiting for a high-value noncreature target rather than spending the mana speculatively. The hand-to-cast data confirms this: the median drawn copy sits in hand for about 2 turns before being cast.

Does casting the card actually help you win?

The data shows a +9.9 percentage-point win-rate lift in games where An Offer You Can't Refuse resolved compared to games where it stayed in the library uncast. With 447 observations in the cast bucket and 2057 in the library bucket, this is a well-sampled directional signal. The lower confidence bound remains positive, which adds weight to the finding, though Playgroup Live's dataset is still growing and these figures should be read as consistent early evidence rather than a definitive conclusion.

Isn't giving the opponent two Treasures a big downside?

In practice the data does not support the idea that the Treasure gift cancels out the benefit of the counter. The positive win-rate delta suggests the tempo and strategic value of stopping a noncreature spell outweighs handing two mana-acceleration tokens to one opponent in a multiplayer game. In a 4-player pod the countered player's loss of their spell matters to the whole table, while the Treasures benefit only one player. The math shifts further when the countered spell is a combo piece or a high-impact enchantment.

Which commanders most commonly run An Offer You Can't Refuse?

On Playgroup Live the top homes are Ms. Bumbleflower and Tidus, Yuna's Guardian, both Bant (G/U/W) commanders, followed by Vivi Ornitier and Y'shtola, Night's Blessed. Blue is the only color requirement, so the card slots into any blue deck. The commander list is spread across a wide range of strategies, from spellslinger to tempo to control, which reflects the card's generic utility as a cheap, hard counter.

Is An Offer You Can't Refuse legal in Commander and other formats?

Yes, it is legal in Commander with no restrictions. It is also legal in Standard, Pioneer, Modern, Legacy, Vintage, Historic, Timeless, Alchemy, Brawl, and Oathbreaker. It is not legal in Pauper (uncommon rarity) or Pauper Commander, and it is not legal in Premodern or Old School by era restriction.