An Offer You Can't Refuse card art
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An Offer You Can't Refuse

{U} · Instant · Foundations (FDN)
11%
Decklist Inclusion
Times Brought
661
Decks Running
361
In Decks
2995
Decklist Inclusion
11%
Format

Final zone distribution

181 instances
1.7%
Library
1.7%
Battlefield
56.9%
Graveyard
7.7%
Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

The "good card" funnel

669 brought · 266 players
Brought to game
669
Ever drawn
161
Reached battlefield
86
Still on board at game end
3
+2.4pp

Players who cast this card win 26% of the time (n=86) , vs 24% when it never left the library (n=458).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 36% (n=74) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

95% confidence interval -7.0pp to +11.8pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

First-cast turn

n=86
1%
T1
1%
T2
3%
T3
6%
T4
6%
T5
73%
T6-9
9%
T10+
Median 7.0 P25 6 · P75 8 · max 14
On curve 1% (1 / 86 cast on T1) Cast same turn as drawn 29%
181 of 25 observed games 100%

Full analysis unlocks as more games are tracked. Stats refresh nightly.

Frequently Asked
Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live has been collecting per-card gameplay data since 2023. Basic play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games; the full deep-dive page needs a larger, more diverse sample (at least 300 tracked games played by 10 or more different pilots, with no single pilot over 40 percent of the copies). Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting.