Live Play Data

Choked Estuary

Land · Marvel Super Heroes Commander (MSC)

21%

Live Inclusion

Buy on TCGplayer

Times Brought

1644

Decks Running

892

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

75%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

21% of tracked Commander decks include Choked Estuary. When drawn, 75% of copies reach the battlefield, with a median first cast landing on turn 3.

Choked Estuary is in 21% of tracked Commander decks on Playgroup Live, appearing in 892 of the 4214 distinct decks that have played a tracked game. That number reflects a narrower audience than most format staples: Choked Estuary only fits in blue-black and three-color combinations that include both colors, so its inclusion ceiling is structurally limited.

The play data tells a clean story for a dual land. 75% of drawn copies were cast before the game ended, and the median first cast lands on turn 3. Battlefield stickiness is 92%, which is exactly what you expect from a land: once it enters, almost nothing removes it. The data is well-spread across 731 unique players, with no single contributor accounting for more than 1% of tracked instances, so the signal is not driven by a handful of repeat players.

Choked Estuary sits comfortably in the "dual land that usually enters untapped" tier for blue-black Commander decks. Its condition asks you to reveal an Island or Swamp already in hand, which is almost always met in the early game when both those basic types tend to cluster in opening hands. It slots naturally into Dimir, Grixis, and Esper shells as reliable fixing below the price floor of original dual lands.

At a glance

21% of tracked Commander decks include Choked Estuary
75% of drawn copies reached the battlefield before the game ended
T3 median first-cast turn across all tracked games
92% battlefield stickiness once played, typical for a land
731 unique players have brought this card to a tracked game
27% draw rate, consistent with singleton in a 100-card deck

First-cast turn

n=329

30%

11%

12%

19%

T6-9

T10+

Median 3 P25 1 · P75 6 · max 18

Cast same turn as drawn 63%

The "good card" funnel

1646 brought · 731 players

Brought to game

1646

Ever drawn

441

Reached battlefield

329

Still on board at game end

304

75%

Of 1646 Choked Estuaries brought to tracked games, 441 were drawn, 329 of those were cast, and the vast majority remained on the battlefield through the end of the game.

≥ -5.8pp

Players who cast this card win 19% of the time (n=295) , vs 20% when it never left the library (n=976).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 27% (n=97) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap -1.0pp; 95% confidence interval -5.8pp to +3.8pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

498 instances

2.4%

Library

61.0%

Battlefield

17.5%

Graveyard

6.6%

Exile

Most of the library bucket here is structural: Choked Estuary copies that were never drawn in 1541 tracked games, a normal outcome for any singleton land in a 100-card deck. The 92% stickiness among cast copies is the more meaningful number.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Y'shtola, Night's Blessed 122 decks
2 Doctor Doom, King of Latveria 116 decks
3 Sauron, Lord of the Rings 42 decks
4 Captain N'ghathrod 41 decks
5 Sauron, the Dark Lord 33 decks
6 Wilhelt, the Rotcleaver 31 decks
7 Admiral Brass, Unsinkable 21 decks
8 Alela, Cunning Conqueror 21 decks
9 Inquisitor Greyfax 17 decks
10 Satoru Umezawa 17 decks

The commander list spans at least three distinct color identities sharing blue and black, which confirms that Choked Estuary functions as format-wide Dimir fixing rather than a card tied to any single strategy or deck shell.

Card text

Choked Estuary

Land

As this land enters, you may reveal an Island or Swamp card from your hand. If you don't, this land enters tapped. {T}

: Add

Marvel Super Heroes Commander (MSC) · Rare · Illustrated by Shahab Alizadeh

Frequently Asked

How often is Choked Estuary drawn in a Commander game?

Across 1541 tracked games where Choked Estuary was in the deck, it was drawn 27% of the time. That is a normal draw rate for any singleton in a 100-card deck. Of the 441 copies that reached a player's hand, 75% were played before the game concluded.

What turn does Choked Estuary usually get played?

Median first-cast turn is 3. The distribution skews early: the single most common turn is turn 1, reflecting opening-hand keeps where Choked Estuary is the first land played. The interquartile range runs from turn 1 to turn 6, meaning a significant share of copies come down quite late, likely drawn off the top mid-game.

Does playing Choked Estuary actually help you win?

The cast-vs-library win-rate delta is small and within the margin of error at current sample sizes. It is best read as directional rather than conclusive. What the data does confirm is that Choked Estuary resolves and sticks at a 92% rate, which is consistent with its role as a land: it is unlikely to be the variable that swings a game on its own, but reliable fixing that rarely costs you anything.

Is Choked Estuary legal in Commander?

Yes. Choked Estuary is legal in Commander, Legacy, Modern, Pioneer, Vintage, Historic, Timeless, Duel Commander, and several other formats. It is not legal in Standard, Pauper, Pauper Commander, or Premodern. There are no bans or restrictions on this card in any format where it is currently legal.

Which commanders play Choked Estuary most?

In the multiplayer Commander data, Y'shtola, Night's Blessed and Doctor Doom, King of Latveria lead by raw deck count. The top commanders list spans Dimir, Grixis, and Esper color identities, which tracks perfectly with Choked Estuary's blue-black color identity. The spread across multiple commander archetypes suggests this is generic Dimir fixing rather than a card that warps around a single strategy.

How reliable is the Playgroup Live data for Choked Estuary?

The data here covers 1541 tracked multiplayer games and 1646 deck participations, with 731 unique players contributing. No single player accounts for more than 1% of tracked instances, which means the dataset is well-distributed and not skewed by a single prolific contributor. Sample sizes for win-rate buckets are in the hundreds, so the play-pattern metrics (draw rate, draw-to-play, cast turn) are solid directional signals. Win-rate lift, as always with smaller live datasets, should be treated with appropriate skepticism.