Live Play Data

Ponder

· Sorcery · Tarkir: Dragonstorm Commander (TDC)

10%

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

1391

Decks Running

777

Median Cast Turn

5.0

Drawn → Played

73%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

Ponder is in 10% of tracked Commander decks on Playgroup Live. When drawn, 73% of copies reach resolution, with a median first-cast turn of 5.0.

Ponder shows up in 10% of the 7783 tracked Commander decks on Playgroup Live, appearing across 777 distinct lists. For a mono-blue sorcery in a format that rewards flexible interaction, that footprint is consistent and broad.

The draw-to-play figure is the sharpest signal here. 73% of drawn Ponders reach resolution before the game ends. That places Ponder among the more reliably executed cantrips in the dataset. Median first cast lands on turn 5.0, but the distribution stretches wide: 32 copies hit on turn 1, drawn in the opening hand, while the long tail runs out to turn 14. More than half of all drawn copies were cast the same turn they were drawn.

Ponder is banned in Modern but legal in Commander, Legacy, Vintage, Pauper, and several other formats. Its appeal in Commander is straightforward: one blue mana buys a look at three cards and a guaranteed draw, letting pilots sculpt their next few turns at minimal cost. 600 distinct players have brought it to a tracked game, and the single heaviest contributor accounts for just 27% of all instances, signaling a well-spread sample rather than a data skew from one prolific user.

At a glance

10% of tracked Commander decks include Ponder
73% of drawn copies reach resolution before the game ends
T5.0 median first-cast turn
27% draw rate across participations
600 distinct players have brought Ponder to a tracked game
270 total casts recorded across all tracked games

First-cast turn

n=270

14%

11%

13%

10%

36%

T6-9

T10+

Median 5.0 P25 2 · P75 7 · max 14

On curve 14% (37 / 270 cast on T1) Cast same turn as drawn 51%

The "good card" funnel

1394 brought · 600 players

Brought to game

1394

Ever drawn

371

Reached battlefield

270

Still on board at game end

73%

Of 1394 Ponders brought to games, 371 were drawn, 270 of those were cast, and nearly all resolved to the graveyard as expected for a one-shot sorcery.

≥ +1.3pp

Players who cast this card win 29% of the time (n=260) , vs 22% when it never left the library (n=879).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 44% (n=96) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +6.9pp; 95% confidence interval +1.3pp to +12.5pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

409 instances

1.5%

Library

2.0%

Battlefield

70.7%

Graveyard

8.8%

Exile

As a sorcery, Ponder resolves and moves to the graveyard immediately. The vast majority of tracked instances end there, which is exactly what the card does. The small library residual reflects copies that were never interacted with in tracked games.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

The top-commander list spans blue-inclusive commanders from Izzet to Dimir to mono-blue, with no single archetype dominating. Vivi Ornitier leads by deck count, but the spread across ten distinct commanders reflects Ponder's broad appeal wherever blue mana is available.

Frequently Asked

How often is Ponder drawn in a Commander game?

Across 1309 tracked multiplayer Commander games where Ponder was in the deck, it was drawn 27% of the time. That reflects normal singleton variance in a 100-card deck. Of the 371 instances that reached a player's hand, 73% were cast before the game ended.

What turn does Ponder typically get cast?

Median first-cast turn is 5.0, with a 25th percentile of turn 2 and a 75th percentile of turn 7. The mode is turn 1, driven by players who kept Ponder in their opening hand and led with it. The distribution is fairly flat from turns 2 through 7, reflecting how often Ponder is cast whenever it is drawn rather than held strategically.

Does casting Ponder correlate with winning?

In 260 participations where Ponder was cast, the normalized win rate was 29%. In 879 participations where it stayed in the library, the rate was 22%. The delta is +6.9 percentage points. The confidence interval for this sample crosses zero, so treat the lift as a directional early signal rather than a confirmed effect.

Is Ponder banned anywhere?

Yes. Ponder is banned in Modern and not legal in Standard, Pioneer, Alchemy, or Premodern. It is legal in Commander, Legacy, Vintage, Pauper, Pauper Commander, Duel Commander, Historic, Timeless, and several other formats. Its absence from Modern is largely due to its strength as a cheap, repeatable card-selection tool in efficient combo and control shells.

How quickly do players cast Ponder after drawing it?

Of the 51% same-turn cast rate recorded across drawn-and-cast instances, players most often resolve Ponder immediately. The median turns held in hand before casting is 0, and the average is under 1 turn. That pattern is consistent with how most pilots treat cheap cantrips: cast early, shape your hand, move on.

Which commanders most often run Ponder?

Among multiplayer Commander decks in the dataset, Vivi Ornitier, Yuriko the Tiger's Shadow, and Aminatou, Veil Piercer lead the top-commander list by deck count. All three are blue-inclusive commanders that value consistent early turns and deck manipulation. The spread across 600 unique players with a single-player share of just 27% suggests the commander distribution reflects broad metagame interest rather than a concentrated data artifact.