Live Play Data

Arcane Denial

· Instant · Marvel Super Heroes Commander (MSC)

22%

Live Inclusion

Buy on TCGplayer

Times Brought

1144

Decks Running

645

Median Cast Turn

7.0

Drawn → Played

62%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

Arcane Denial sits in 22% of tracked Commander decks, and players who draw it hold it a median of 2 turns before casting. It resolves turn 7.0 on average, well past its 2-mana cost, reflecting its role as reactive interaction rather than an early-game play.

Arcane Denial is the Commander format's most permissive counterspell: it stops a spell, then replaces itself and softens the blow for your opponent with card draw. Across 1003 tracked games on Playgroup Live, 22% of decks with blue in their color identity bring it to the table.

As an instant held for the right moment, its cast pattern looks different from a proactive spell. Median first cast lands on turn 7.0, and players sit on it a median of 2 turns after drawing it before pulling the trigger. 62% of drawn copies reach the stack before the game ends. The on-curve rate of 2% reflects its reactive nature: you rarely tap out on turn 2 for a counterspell when nothing threatening has been cast yet.

The data comes from 479 distinct players, and no single contributor accounts for more than a small slice of the sample. That spread lends the directional signals here more credibility than a concentrated dataset would.

At a glance

22% of tracked Commander decks include Arcane Denial
T7.0 median first-cast turn, typical for reactive interaction
62% of drawn copies reach the stack before the game ends
2% on-curve rate, reflecting its use as reactive countermagic
479 distinct players have brought this card to a tracked game
35% win rate in games where Arcane Denial resolved

First-cast turn

n=180

13%

58%

T6-9

13%

T10+

Median 7.0 P25 5 · P75 8 · max 20

On curve 2% (2 / 180 cast on T2) Cast same turn as drawn 22%

The "good card" funnel

1149 brought · 479 players

Brought to game

1149

Ever drawn

290

Reached battlefield

180

Still on board at game end

62%

Of 1149 copies brought to games, 290 were drawn, and 180 of those were cast, with the remainder held in hand when games concluded.

≥ +5.1pp

Players who cast this card win 35% of the time (n=180) , vs 24% when it never left the library (n=780).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 35% (n=109) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +11.8pp; 95% confidence interval +5.1pp to +18.6pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

320 instances

3.4%

Library

4.1%

Battlefield

56.9%

Graveyard

11.3%

Exile

Most Arcane Denial copies never leave the library, which is structural for a singleton in a 100-card deck. The graveyard is the primary active destination, as expected for a resolving instant.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Rootha, Mastering the Moment 34 decks
2 Captain America, Team Leader 29 decks
3 Sauron, Lord of the Rings 14 decks
4 Sauron, the Dark Lord 11 decks
5 Ms. Bumbleflower 10 decks
6 Vnwxt, Verbose Host 10 decks
7 Alela, Cunning Conqueror 9 decks
8 Nekusar, the Mindrazer 9 decks
9 Tony Stark // The Invincible Iron Man 9 decks
10 Aesi, Tyrant of Gyre Strait 8 decks

The top commander list spans Izzet, Grixis, and Simic shells, reflecting Arcane Denial's fit anywhere blue appears rather than a single dominant archetype.

Frequently Asked

How often is Arcane Denial drawn in a Commander game?

In 1003 tracked games where Arcane Denial was in the deck, it was drawn 25% of the time. That is consistent with what you expect from a singleton in a 100-card deck. Of 290 drawn copies, 62% were cast before the game ended. The remainder were mostly held in hand when the game concluded, not deliberately withheld.

What turn does Arcane Denial usually get cast?

Median first-cast turn is 7.0, with the 25th percentile at turn 5 and the 75th at turn 8. That distribution is characteristic of reactive countermagic: players hold the spell until a meaningful threat appears rather than deploying it as early as possible. The mean cast turn is a bit higher still, pulled up by a handful of very late-game casts.

Does casting Arcane Denial actually correlate with winning?

The win rate in participations where Arcane Denial resolved is 35%, compared to 24% when it stayed in the library untouched. That is a +11.8 percentage-point gap. Both sample sizes are healthy, so this is a consistent directional signal in the Playgroup Live dataset. It does not prove causation: decks that cast countermagic tend to be built around it, which inflates the correlation.

Why does Arcane Denial see play in Commander when it gives the opponent cards?

Arcane Denial costs only 2 mana and replaces itself with a draw at the start of the next upkeep. In a four-player pod, tempo matters more than the one or two cards an opponent might draw later. The format's social contract also makes a softer counterspell easier to deploy without drawing immediate political retaliation. Its common rarity keeps it accessible across all budget levels, which contributes to its wide 22% inclusion in the tracked dataset.

Is Arcane Denial legal in Commander?

Yes. Arcane Denial is legal in Commander, Pauper Commander, Duel Commander, Oathbreaker, Legacy, Vintage, Pauper, and Premodern. It is not legal in Standard, Pioneer, Modern, Alchemy, Historic, Brawl, or Timeless. Its common rarity means it is also a staple in Pauper and Pauper Commander, which partly explains its long print history across many sets.

How concentrated is the Arcane Denial data across players?

479 distinct players have brought Arcane Denial to a tracked game on Playgroup Live. No single player accounts for more than a small fraction of the total instances, which means the patterns here are not driven by one or two prolific users. That spread is a relative strength of this dataset compared to cards with fewer contributors.