Live Play Data

Black Market Connections

· Enchantment · Marvel Super Heroes Commander (MSC)

15%

Live Inclusion

Buy on TCGplayer

Times Brought

2223

Decks Running

1184

Median Cast Turn

4.5

Drawn → Played

63%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

37% of games where Black Market Connections resolved ended in a win for the caster, a +12.0 percentage-point lift over the baseline, across 307 tracked participations.

Black Market Connections sits in 15% of Commander decks tracked on Playgroup Live, appearing in 1184 of the 7881 distinct decks that have played a recorded game. That breadth across black-inclusive commanders confirms its reputation as one of the format's most flexible three-mana enchantments.

The win-rate signal is the strongest number here. Games where the card reached the battlefield show a +12.0 percentage-point lift over games where it stayed in the library, and the lower bound of that confidence interval clears zero, making this an early but meaningful positive signal rather than noise. Cast copies finish on the battlefield 75% of the time, meaning removal is the exception rather than the rule once it resolves.

The card's flexibility is the mechanical reason it shows up across so many commander archetypes. Treasures feed mana-hungry turns, card draw feeds hand advantage, and the 3/2 Shapeshifter token feeds tribal synergies. Every main phase the enchantment is in play, its controller picks the option that matters most right now. That optionality is precisely why 868 distinct players have brought it to a tracked game.

At a glance

15% of tracked Commander decks include Black Market Connections
63% of drawn copies were cast before the game ended
T4.5 median first-cast turn, one above its mana value of 3
75% battlefield stickiness once resolved
+12.0pp normalized win-rate lift when cast vs. staying in the library
868 distinct players have brought this card to a tracked game

First-cast turn

n=330

24%

14%

30%

T6-9

T10+

Median 4.5 P25 3 · P75 7 · max 15

On curve 36% (80 / 330 cast on T3) Cast same turn as drawn 31%

The "good card" funnel

2223 brought · 868 players

Brought to game

2223

Ever drawn

526

Reached battlefield

330

Still on board at game end

246

63%

Of 2223 copies brought to games, 526 were drawn, 330 of those were cast, and the majority of resolved copies stayed on the battlefield through the end of the game.

≥ +6.5pp

Players who cast this card win 37% of the time (n=307) , vs 25% when it never left the library (n=1389).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 27% (n=185) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +12.0pp; 95% confidence interval +6.5pp to +17.4pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

596 instances

3.0%

Library

41.3%

Battlefield

25.0%

Graveyard

7.4%

Exile

Most copies that were never interacted with stayed in the library, a structural fact of 100-card singleton decks. Among observed instances, the battlefield is the most common final destination, which reflects how rarely the card is answered once it lands.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Doctor Doom, King of Latveria 116 decks
2 Y'shtola, Night's Blessed 39 decks
3 Ezio Auditore da Firenze 24 decks
4 Edgar Markov 23 decks
5 Edward Kenway 23 decks
6 Sephiroth, Fabled SOLDIER // Sephiroth, One-Winged Angel 23 decks
7 Admiral Brass, Unsinkable 22 decks
8 Betor, Ancestor's Voice 20 decks
9 Oloro, Ageless Ascetic 17 decks
10 Sauron, the Dark Lord 17 decks

Doctor Doom, King of Latveria leads in raw deck count by a substantial margin, but the spread across ten-plus distinct commanders shows that Black Market Connections is a format-wide staple, not a single-archetype card.

Frequently Asked

How often is Black Market Connections drawn and cast in a Commander game?

Across 1995 tracked multiplayer games where the card was in a deck, it was drawn 24% of the time, consistent with what you'd expect from a singleton in a 100-card deck. Of those 526 drawn copies, 63% were cast before the game ended. The remainder largely reflects games that ended before the player found a window to cast a three-mana enchantment.

What turn does Black Market Connections usually hit the battlefield?

The median first-cast turn is 4.5. The mode of the distribution sits at turn 3, its exact mana cost, driven by hands that curve out naturally or benefit from early ramp. The interquartile range runs from turn 3 to turn 7, so roughly half of all casts land in that window. Only 36% of casts land exactly on curve, which reflects how often players draw it after the early turns rather than a tendency to hold it.

Does casting Black Market Connections actually improve your chances of winning?

The data is directional and positive. Games where the card was cast show a +12.0 percentage-point normalized win-rate lift over games where it remained in the library, across 307 cast participations and 1389 library-baseline participations. Importantly, the lower bound of the confidence interval clears zero, which makes this one of the cleaner positive signals in the dataset at this sample size. We still label it directional rather than definitive, but the consistency is notable.

How sticky is Black Market Connections once it resolves?

75% of cast copies finish the game on the battlefield. That is high for a non-land permanent in a format where targeted removal, board wipes, and sacrifice effects are common. The card's low converted mana cost means players can rebuild quickly if it is removed, but the data suggests opponents often prioritize other threats first.

Which commanders run Black Market Connections most often?

Doctor Doom, King of Latveria leads by a wide margin in raw deck count among tracked games, followed by Y'shtola, Night's Blessed and Sephiroth, Fabled SOLDIER. The spread across commanders is broad: the top commander entry still represents just a fraction of total instances, and the card shows up across mono-black, Grixis, Esper, Mardu, Jund, and five-color shells. Any commander with black in its color identity is a plausible home.

Is Black Market Connections legal in the formats I play?

Black Market Connections is legal in Commander, Legacy, Modern, Vintage, Historic, Timeless, and Oathbreaker. It is not legal in Standard, Pioneer, Pauper, or Pauper Commander. In Commander it is unrestricted, which is the primary driver of its broad adoption in tracked games.