Live Play Data

Stroke of Midnight

· Instant · Tarkir: Dragonstorm Commander (TDC)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

709

Decks Running

365

Median Cast Turn

7.0

Drawn → Played

63%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

8% of tracked Commander decks run Stroke of Midnight. When drawn, 63% of copies reach resolution, with a median first-cast turn of 7.0.

Stroke of Midnight is a 3-mana white instant that destroys any nonland permanent and hands its controller a 1/1 Human token as a consolation prize. It sits in 8% of the 4450 tracked Commander decks on Playgroup Live, appearing across 365 distinct lists spanning white-based commanders of every archetype.

The draw-to-play rate stands at 63%, meaning that when a copy enters a player's hand, roughly three in five reach resolution before the game ends. Median first cast lands on turn 7.0, well past the card's mana value of 3. That gap is expected for removal held in hand until a threat demands it. The hand-to-cast data reinforces this: the median copy sits in hand for 2 turns before being used, and only 25% of casts happen on the same turn the card is drawn. Players are sequencing it reactively, not slamming it the moment they see it.

Data is drawn from 663 tracked multiplayer games across 311 distinct players, with no single contributor accounting for more than 4% of all instances. That spread gives the figures here a reasonable cross-table foundation, though the sample remains early-signal territory for fine-grained win-rate conclusions.

At a glance

8% of tracked Commander decks include Stroke of Midnight
24% draw rate, consistent with a singleton in a 100-card deck
63% of drawn copies resolve before the game ends
T7.0 median first-cast turn, reflecting reactive hold-and-fire sequencing
25% of casts happen the same turn the card is drawn
311 distinct players have brought this card to a tracked game

First-cast turn

n=106

13%

62%

T6-9

19%

T10+

Median 7.0 P25 6 · P75 9 · max 14

On curve 2% (2 / 106 cast on T3) Cast same turn as drawn 25%

The "good card" funnel

711 brought · 311 players

Brought to game

711

Ever drawn

168

Reached battlefield

106

Still on board at game end

63%

Of 711 copies brought to tracked games, 168 were drawn, 106 of those were cast, and a median cast turn of 7.0 shows players holding it patiently until the right threat appears.

≥ -9.2pp

Players who cast this card win 24% of the time (n=103) , vs 24% when it never left the library (n=493).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 30% (n=57) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap -0.6pp; 95% confidence interval -9.2pp to +8.0pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

183 instances

3.8%

Library

1.6%

Battlefield

57.4%

Graveyard

10.9%

Exile

The vast majority of Stroke of Midnight copies finish in the graveyard after resolving, with only a small fraction stranded in hand or exiled. The graveyard-heavy profile is exactly what you expect from a cast-and-forget instant.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

The commander list spans mono-white, Boros, Mardu, Naya, and Esper builds, with no single commander dominating the count. That breadth confirms Stroke of Midnight is a white staple picked for its raw utility, not a synergy-dependent inclusion.

Frequently Asked

How often is Stroke of Midnight drawn in a Commander game?

Across 663 tracked multiplayer games where Stroke of Midnight was in the deck, it was drawn 24% of the time. That is typical for a singleton in a 100-card deck. Of those 168 drawn copies, 63% were cast before the game concluded, giving a healthy but not automatic resolution rate for a reactive instant.

What turn does Stroke of Midnight typically get cast?

The median first-cast turn is 7.0, with the distribution clustering between turns 5 and 9. The card costs 3 mana but almost never lands on curve: only 2% of casts hit turn 3 exactly. That is a structural feature of reactive removal. Players hold the card until a high-value target appears rather than forcing an early cast, which pushes the median well past the mana value.

Does casting Stroke of Midnight correlate with winning?

In 103 participations where the card was cast, the win rate is 24%. In 493 participations where it stayed in the library, the win rate is 24%. The delta is small and the confidence interval crosses zero at this sample size, so treat any apparent lift as directional rather than conclusive. The card's value is in enabling survival, not producing a clean win-rate spike on its own.

Why does Stroke of Midnight give the opponent a 1/1 Human token?

The token clause is the design cost that makes a catch-all 3-mana unconditional removal spell printable in modern Magic. Destroying any nonland permanent for 2W would be historically pushed. The 1/1 consolation means the opponent is not left completely empty-handed, which the design team uses to justify the broad targeting scope. In Commander, the token is rarely relevant: most targets are worth far more than a 1/1 creature.

Which commanders most often run Stroke of Midnight?

On Playgroup Live, Lightning Army of One (Boros), Giada Font of Hope (mono-white), and Y'shtola Night's Blessed (Esper) lead the commander list. The spread across Boros, mono-white, Mardu, Naya, and Esper lists reflects Stroke of Midnight's role as a format-level white removal staple rather than a synergy piece tied to any single strategy.

Is Stroke of Midnight legal in other formats?

Yes. Stroke of Midnight is legal in Commander, Standard, Pioneer, Modern, Legacy, Vintage, Historic, Alchemy, Timeless, Brawl, and Oathbreaker. It is not legal in Pauper or Pauper Commander (uncommon rarity), and it does not appear in Old School or Premodern card pools.