Live Play Data

Ash Barrens

Land · Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Eternal (TMC)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

1906

Decks Running

1039

Median Cast Turn

5.0

Drawn → Played

69%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

Ash Barrens sits in 7% of tracked Commander decks on Playgroup Live, with 69% of drawn copies reaching play, and a median first-cast turn of 5.0.

Ash Barrens earns its slot across 1039 of the 14231 distinct Commander decks tracked on Playgroup Live, a 7% inclusion rate that reflects the card's unique double identity: a colorless land in a pinch, and a basic landcycler when fixing matters more than tempo.

When a copy reaches a player's hand, 69% of the time it is played before the game ends. Median first play lands on turn 5.0. That relatively late median is typical for a utility land that players often cycle away in the early turns rather than drop as a tapped land. The distribution clusters hard at turn 1, where 342 casts are spread across a wide range, with the mode sitting at turn 1 for hands where fixing is urgent from the jump.

Color-identity-agnostic by nature, Ash Barrens shows up across all five color identities in the top-commander list. That spread is the clearest signal of its appeal: no other common land fixes mana for a colorless-identity deck while also cycling into a basic for three-, four-, or five-color builds equally well.

At a glance

7% of tracked Commander decks include Ash Barrens
26% draw rate across tracked games
69% of drawn copies reach play before the game ends
T5.0 median turn for first play or cycle
62% battlefield stickiness once played as a land
760 distinct players have brought Ash Barrens to a tracked game

First-cast turn

n=342

17%

12%

11%

34%

T6-9

10%

T10+

Median 5.0 P25 2 · P75 7 · max 16

Cast same turn as drawn 51%

The "good card" funnel

1916 brought · 760 players

Brought to game

1916

Ever drawn

496

Reached battlefield

342

Still on board at game end

213

69%

Of 1916 copies brought to tracked games, 496 were drawn, 342 of those were played or cycled, and just under two-thirds of those landed on the battlefield rather than heading straight to the graveyard via cycling.

≥ -1.7pp

Players who cast this card win 23% of the time (n=308) , vs 20% when it never left the library (n=1197).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 30% (n=143) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +2.9pp; 95% confidence interval -1.7pp to +7.5pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

540 instances

3.0%

Library

39.4%

Battlefield

36.9%

Graveyard

8.0%

Exile

Most Ash Barrens copies end the game in the graveyard after being cycled away, a healthy sign that players are actively using the basic landcycling ability rather than sitting on it as a land.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

The top-commander list spans every color combination, from mono-color to five-color builds, confirming that Ash Barrens earns its slot regardless of what colors a deck needs to fix.

Frequently Asked

How often is Ash Barrens drawn in a Commander game?

Across 1667 tracked games where Ash Barrens was in the deck, it was drawn 26% of the time. That is in line with expectations for a singleton in a 100-card deck. Of 496 instances that entered a player's hand, 69% were played or cycled before the game ended. The remainder largely reflects games that ended before the card could be used.

What turn does Ash Barrens typically hit play?

The median first-play turn is 5.0, with the 25th percentile at turn 2 and the 75th percentile at turn 7. The mode is turn 1, driven by opening hands where players drop it immediately for colorless mana or cycle it on turn 1 for a basic. The wide spread reflects the card's dual role: early fixer or late-game cycler depending on what the hand needs.

Does casting Ash Barrens correlate with winning?

In 308 participations where Ash Barrens was played or cycled, the normalized win rate is 23%. In 1197 participations where it stayed in the library the whole game, the rate is 20%. The delta is +2.9 percentage points. With both buckets well-sampled, this is a consistent early signal that playing the card correlates with better outcomes, though the dataset should grow further before drawing firm conclusions.

Is Ash Barrens legal in Commander?

Yes. Ash Barrens is legal in Commander and has no color identity, meaning it fits in any deck regardless of the commander's colors. It is also legal in Legacy, Vintage, Pauper, Pauper Commander, Duel Commander, Brawl, and several other formats. It is not legal in Modern, Pioneer, or Standard.

Why does Ash Barrens see play across so many different commander archetypes?

The card has no color identity, so it slots into any deck without restriction. For colorless or mono-color builds it provides a land that can cycle into a basic when a specific color is needed. For multicolor decks it offers a turn-1 colorless source that converts into a key basic later. That flexibility explains why the top-commander list on Playgroup Live spans every color combination, from colorless-identity commanders to five-color piles.

How concentrated is the Ash Barrens data among a few players?

The data is well-spread. 760 distinct players have brought Ash Barrens to a tracked game on Playgroup Live, and the single heaviest contributor accounts for just 26% of all instances. No single player's preferences are skewing the numbers, which adds credibility to the directional patterns we see in draw, play, and win-rate data.