Live Play Data

Ash Barrens

Land · Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Eternal (TMC)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

1001

Decks Running

567

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

64%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

Ash Barrens appears in 7% of tracked Commander decks on Playgroup Live, drawn 26% of the time and cast 64% of the time it's drawn, with a median first-cast turn of 5.

Ash Barrens punches above its colorless-land station by doing two jobs: tapping for {C} in a pinch, or cycling away for {1} to fetch any basic land. 7% of tracked Commander decks on Playgroup Live carry it, spread across 567 distinct decks out of 8378 in the dataset. The data comes from 427 unique players, and no single player accounts for more than 4% of all tracked instances, making this one of the better-distributed samples we have.

When Ash Barrens reaches a player's hand, 64% of those copies are cast or cycled before the game ends. Median first cast lands on turn 5, reflecting the card's dual identity: sometimes you keep it as a land, and sometimes you cycle it mid-game to fix a color problem. The graveyard is the most common final zone for observed copies, consistent with the basic landcycling line being the primary use case.

The commander spread is broad. Top slots are held by Esper, Bant, and Naya commanders, all of whom benefit from early color fixing that a single colorless land can provide cheaply. Five-color commanders like Leonardo, the Balance also appear high on the list, where access to all five basics makes the cycling mode especially flexible.

At a glance

7% of tracked Commander decks include Ash Barrens
26% draw rate across tracked games, normal for a singleton in 100 cards
64% of drawn copies are cast or cycled before the game ends
T5 median first-cast (or cycle) turn
427 unique players in the dataset, giving broad coverage
61% battlefield stickiness when cast as a land rather than cycled

First-cast turn

n=167

13%

14%

39%

T6-9

11%

T10+

Median 5 P25 2 · P75 8 · max 16

Cast same turn as drawn 44%

The "good card" funnel

1011 brought · 427 players

Brought to game

1011

Ever drawn

259

Reached battlefield

167

Still on board at game end

102

64%

Of 1011 Ash Barrens brought to games, 259 were drawn, 167 of those were cast or cycled, reflecting a card that rewards early access but still provides value whenever it is found.

≥ -4.6pp

Players who cast this card win 23% of the time (n=159) , vs 21% when it never left the library (n=665).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 34% (n=87) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +1.8pp; 95% confidence interval -4.6pp to +8.2pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

285 instances

1.8%

Library

35.8%

Battlefield

37.9%

Graveyard

8.4%

Exile

Most observed copies of Ash Barrens end in the graveyard, a strong signal that players are primarily cycling it for a basic land rather than using it as a tap-for-colorless land drop.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

The commander list spans Esper, Bant, Naya, and five-color builds, showing Ash Barrens is treated as a format-wide fixing tool rather than a staple of any single archetype.

Frequently Asked

How often is Ash Barrens drawn in a Commander game?

Across 893 tracked games where Ash Barrens was in the deck, it was drawn 26% of the time. That is typical for a singleton in a 100-card deck. Of 259 instances that reached a player's hand, 64% were cast or cycled before the game concluded. The remainder are mostly copies drawn late, after the game had already been decided.

What turn does Ash Barrens usually get played or cycled?

Median first use lands on turn 5, with the 25th percentile at turn 3 and the 75th at turn 8. The wide spread reflects the two modes: early cycles to fix colors and later uses as a land drop when color fixing is already secured. A cluster of 13 instances resolved on turn 1, likely kept in opening hands and cycled immediately.

Is Ash Barrens just used as a land, or do players mostly cycle it?

The final zone distribution is the clearest signal here. The graveyard is the dominant destination for observed copies, consistent with basic landcycling being the primary line players take. Battlefield finishes also appear in meaningful numbers, showing that some copies are kept as lands rather than cycled. The card genuinely functions as both, and players appear to exercise that choice situationally.

Does casting or cycling Ash Barrens actually improve your chances of winning?

The cast win rate is 23% versus 21% for games where it stayed in the library, a delta of +1.8 percentage points. With 159 cast observations and 665 library observations, the sample is directional but the confidence interval for the multiplayer mode overlaps zero. Read this as an early positive signal, not a proven edge.

Which commanders run Ash Barrens most often?

The top commanders by raw deck count on Playgroup Live are Y'shtola, Night's Blessed (Esper), Tidus, Yuna's Guardian (Bant), and Cloud, Ex-SOLDIER (Naya). All three benefit from reliable basic land fixing early. Five-color commanders like Leonardo, the Balance also appear high, where cycling for any of the five basic types is maximally flexible. The spread across so many different color identities confirms Ash Barrens is treated as a format-wide utility piece rather than a narrow combo with any one commander.

Is Ash Barrens legal in Commander and other formats?

Ash Barrens is legal in Commander, Duel Commander, Pauper, Pauper Commander, Legacy, Vintage, Historic, Timeless, Brawl, Gladiator, and Oathbreaker. It is not legal in Modern, Pioneer, Standard, or Alchemy. Its common rarity and broad legality make it especially relevant in Pauper and Pauper Commander, where color-fixing lands are scarce.