Live Play Data

Gray Merchant of Asphodel

· Creature — Zombie · Duskmourn: House of Horror Commander (DSC)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

570

Decks Running

320

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

63%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

47% of tracked games where Gray Merchant of Asphodel resolved ended in a win for the caster, a +24.9 percentage-point lift over decks that never interacted with it.

Gray Merchant of Asphodel lands in 8% of tracked Commander decks on Playgroup Live, a focused black staple whose value scales directly with devotion. The win-rate gap is the headline: games where Gary resolves see a +24.9 percentage-point improvement over games where the card sat untouched in the library.

The draw-to-play rate sits at 63%, meaning a meaningful share of drawn copies never reach the battlefield before the game ends. Median first cast lands on turn 7, later than its 5-mana cost might suggest. Most casts arrive behind curve, as players wait to maximize devotion rather than slamming Gary on turn five with a modest board.

The data is well-spread across 276 distinct players, with no single contributor exceeding 3% of all tracked instances. That breadth gives the win-rate signal more weight than a concentrated sample would.

At a glance

8% of tracked Commander decks include Gray Merchant of Asphodel
47% win rate in games where Gary resolved
+24.9 percentage-point win-rate lift over the library baseline
T7 median first-cast turn, reflecting players waiting to stack devotion
64% battlefield stickiness once cast
63% of drawn copies were cast before the game ended

First-cast turn

n=101

17%

57%

T6-9

17%

T10+

Median 7 P25 5 · P75 9 · max 14

On curve 26% (17 / 101 cast on T5) Cast same turn as drawn 30%

The "good card" funnel

578 brought · 276 players

Brought to game

578

Ever drawn

160

Reached battlefield

101

Still on board at game end

63%

Of 578 Gray Merchants brought to tracked games, 160 were drawn, 101 of those were cast, and 64% of cast copies remained on the battlefield through end of observed play.

≥ +15.1pp

Players who cast this card win 47% of the time (n=101) , vs 23% when it never left the library (n=366).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 25% (n=58) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +24.8pp; 95% confidence interval +15.1pp to +34.5pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

181 instances

1.7%

Library

35.9%

Battlefield

22.1%

Graveyard

12.7%

Exile

Most observed Gray Merchant instances finish the game in the graveyard or on the battlefield, reflecting a card whose enters-the-battlefield trigger delivers value immediately even when the creature is later answered.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Valgavoth, Harrower of Souls 29 decks
2 Wilhelt, the Rotcleaver 16 decks
3 K'rrik, Son of Yawgmoth 14 decks
4 Henzie "Toolbox" Torre 11 decks
5 Sheoldred, the Apocalypse 11 decks
6 Sephiroth, Fabled SOLDIER // Sephiroth, One-Winged Angel 10 decks
7 Meren of Clan Nel Toth 9 decks
8 The Scarab God 8 decks
9 Gisa and Geralf 7 decks
10 Mister Negative 7 decks

The commander list spans zombie tribal, mono-black devotion, and reanimator shells across at least ten distinct archetypes, showing Gray Merchant's reach extends well beyond any single strategy.

Frequently Asked

How often is Gray Merchant of Asphodel drawn in a Commander game?

Across 540 tracked games, Gray Merchant of Asphodel was drawn 28% of the time. That is consistent with typical singleton variance in a 100-card deck. Of 160 drawn instances, 63% were cast before the game concluded. The remainder reflects games that ended before a cast became possible, not players choosing to hold it.

What turn does Gray Merchant of Asphodel usually get cast?

Median first cast arrives on turn 7, with the middle half of casts falling between turns 5 and 9. Only a small fraction land on turn 5, Gary's actual mana cost. The delayed cast curve is deliberate: players in black devotion shells typically wait until enough permanents are in play to make the drain effect game-winning rather than merely incremental.

Does casting Gray Merchant of Asphodel actually improve your win odds?

The data offers a strong directional signal. Win rate in participations where Gary resolved is 47%, versus 23% for participations where the card never left the library. That is a +24.9 percentage-point gap across 101 cast observations and 366 library observations. Both buckets are well above 15 observations, so this is more than a small-sample fluke, though Playgroup Live's dataset is still growing and we describe it as a consistent signal rather than a definitive proof.

Is Gray Merchant of Asphodel legal in Commander?

Yes, Gary is legal and unrestricted in Commander, as well as in Legacy, Modern, Pioneer, Pauper, Vintage, and several other formats. It is not legal in Standard or Alchemy. Pauper Commander is also legal, fitting Gary's uncommon rarity. Its absence from Standard is simply a function of not being in a legal set for that format at this time.

Which commanders run Gray Merchant of Asphodel most often?

Among tracked decks, Valgavoth, Harrower of Souls leads with 29 decks, followed by Wilhelt, the Rotcleaver at 16 and K'rrik, Son of Yawgmoth at 14. The spread across zombie tribal commanders, mono-black builds, and value-reanimator shells shows Gary's versatility. Any deck that runs enough black pips to generate a meaningful devotion count is a candidate.

How sticky is Gray Merchant of Asphodel on the battlefield?

Once cast, Gary stays on the battlefield 64% of the time through end of observed play. That is lower than a noncreature permanent would typically show, which is expected for a 5-mana creature with no built-in protection. Its primary value fires on entering the battlefield, so removal after the trigger resolves still fulfills the card's core purpose.