Live Play Data

Sakura-Tribe Elder

· Creature — Snake Shaman · Secrets of Strixhaven Commander (SOC)

14%

Live Inclusion

Buy on TCGplayer

Times Brought

858

Decks Running

488

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

75%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

75% of drawn Sakura-Tribe Elders are cast before the game ends, and the card shows up across 392 distinct players in the Playgroup Live dataset, making it one of the most broadly represented green ramp pieces tracked.

Sakura-Tribe Elder sits in 14% of the 3386 decks tracked on Playgroup Live. That is a narrower footprint than format staples like Sol Ring, which reflects its green color restriction rather than any weakness on the card itself. Within green-inclusive shells, it is a near-automatic ramp piece.

The draw-to-play rate of 75% is among the higher figures for a 2-mana creature. Players cast it promptly: the median delay between drawing and casting sits at 1 turn, and 45% of cast copies were played on the same turn they were drawn. The on-curve rate of 27% is low, but that reflects the singleton variance of a 100-card deck rather than any reluctance to cast it. When it hits the hand early, it gets played immediately.

The commander distribution is notably broad. 392 distinct players have brought this card to a tracked game, and no single player accounts for more than a tiny slice of the data. That spread is a reliable signal: Sakura-Tribe Elder earns its slot across a wide range of green strategies, not just one dedicated archetype.

At a glance

14% of tracked Commander decks include Sakura-Tribe Elder
75% of drawn copies are cast before the game ends
T4 median first-cast turn
45% of cast copies played on the same turn they were drawn
392 distinct players have brought this card to a tracked game
27% on-curve cast rate, mostly a reflection of singleton draw variance

First-cast turn

n=183

22%

17%

10%

32%

T6-9

T10+

Median 4 P25 2 · P75 7 · max 17

On curve 27% (40 / 183 cast on T2) Cast same turn as drawn 45%

The "good card" funnel

860 brought · 392 players

Brought to game

860

Ever drawn

245

Reached battlefield

183

Still on board at game end

75%

Of 860 copies brought to games, 245 were drawn, 183 of those were cast, and the card almost always ends in the graveyard as intended after fetching a land.

≥ +1.3pp

Players who cast this card win 31% of the time (n=179) , vs 23% when it never left the library (n=561).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 31% (n=59) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +8.1pp; 95% confidence interval +1.3pp to +14.9pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

277 instances

2.5%

Library

6.9%

Battlefield

62.5%

Graveyard

11.6%

Exile

Most copies never leave the library, a structural feature of 100-card singleton. The graveyard is the dominant final zone for cast copies, which is expected: Sakura-Tribe Elder sacrifices itself as part of its own ability.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

The commander list is spread across green-inclusive two- and three-color identities, with Dina, Essence Brewer leading. The breadth signals that Sakura-Tribe Elder fits many archetypes rather than one narrow home.

Frequently Asked

How often is Sakura-Tribe Elder drawn in a Commander game?

In 787 tracked games where Sakura-Tribe Elder was in the deck, it was drawn 28% of the time. That is consistent with a singleton in a 100-card deck. Of the 245 instances that reached a player's hand, 75% were cast before the game ended.

What turn does Sakura-Tribe Elder typically get cast?

The median first-cast turn is 4. The distribution runs from turn 1 through turn 12, with the bulk of casts clustered in the turns 2 through 6 window. When a player does have it in hand, the median delay before casting is just 1 turn, and 45% of cast copies go down the same turn they are drawn.

Why is the on-curve cast rate so low?

Sakura-Tribe Elder has a mana value of 2, so an on-curve cast means turn 2. The 27% on-curve rate mostly reflects singleton variance: most copies are drawn well after turn 2. It is not a signal that players are deliberately holding it. The 45% same-turn cast rate confirms players move quickly once they have it.

Is Sakura-Tribe Elder legal in Commander?

Yes. Sakura-Tribe Elder is legal in Commander, Duel Commander, Pauper Commander, Legacy, Modern, Vintage, and several other formats. It is not legal in Standard, Pioneer, Brawl, Alchemy, or Pauper's non-Commander variant.

Which commanders most commonly run Sakura-Tribe Elder?

Among tracked games, Dina, Essence Brewer leads the list by a significant margin, followed by commanders like Meren of Clan Nel Toth, Bello, Bard of the Brambles, and Teval, the Balanced Scale. The spread across Golgari, Sultai, Gruul, and other green-inclusive identities shows the card earns its slot in a variety of strategies, not just graveyard or aristocrats builds.

How reliable is this data given sample size?

With 787 tracked games and 392 distinct players contributing data, this is one of the better-spread datasets on Playgroup Live. No single player accounts for more than a small fraction of instances, which strengthens the directional signals. Win-rate figures should still be read as early signals rather than definitive benchmarks, as the dataset is a play-based sample rather than a full population scrape.