Live Play Data

Path to Exile

· Instant · Marvel Super Heroes Commander (MSC)

46%

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

3010

Decks Running

1645

Median Cast Turn

7.0

Drawn → Played

74%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

46% of tracked Commander decks run Path to Exile, and when a copy is drawn, 74% of the time it reaches resolution before the game ends, with a median first-cast turn of 7.0.

Path to Exile sits in 46% of the 3596 Commander decks tracked on Playgroup Live, making it one of the most widely played single-target removal spells in White. That number reflects actual game table data, not decklist scrapes, so treat it as a play-based signal rather than a direct comparison to external databases.

As a 1-mana instant, Path to Exile almost never resolves on turn 1. The median first-cast turn is 7.0, which reflects the reality that removal sits in hand until a threat worth answering appears. Of 741 drawn copies, 74% were cast before the game ended. The remainder stayed in hand, often because the game concluded or no suitable target presented itself.

The cast win rate sits at 28% versus 24% for games where the card never left the library. That +4.3 percentage-point gap is a directional signal worth watching as the dataset grows, but the sample is large enough that the lower confidence bound is already above zero, lending some weight to the idea that resolving this spell correlates with winning.

At a glance

46% of tracked Commander decks include Path to Exile
25% draw rate across games where the card was in the deck
74% of drawn copies were cast before the game ended
T7.0 median first-cast turn, reflecting reactive hold patterns
+4.3pp win-rate lift when cast versus sitting in the library
961 distinct players have brought Path to Exile to a tracked game

First-cast turn

n=546

10%

14%

55%

T6-9

15%

T10+

Median 7.0 P25 5 · P75 8 · max 18

On curve 1% (5 / 546 cast on T1) Cast same turn as drawn 24%

The "good card" funnel

3016 brought · 961 players

Brought to game

3016

Ever drawn

741

Reached battlefield

546

Still on board at game end

74%

Of 3016 copies brought to tracked games, 741 were drawn, and 546 of those were cast, giving a clear picture of how often this reactive spell actually fires.

≥ +0.5pp

Players who cast this card win 28% of the time (n=537) , vs 24% when it never left the library (n=2086).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 31% (n=186) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +4.3pp; 95% confidence interval +0.5pp to +8.1pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

812 instances

3.0%

Library

2.8%

Battlefield

66.1%

Graveyard

9.4%

Exile

Path to Exile resolves to the graveyard as an instant, so the dominant final zones are graveyard for cast copies and library for the majority that were never drawn. This is expected singleton behavior in a 100-card deck.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

The commander list spans mono-White specialists, aggressive multicolor builds, and five-color goodstuff piles. That breadth confirms Path to Exile is a generalist removal spell, not a build-around.

Frequently Asked

How often is Path to Exile drawn in a Commander game?

Across 2257 tracked multiplayer Commander games where Path to Exile was in the deck, it was drawn 25% of the time. That is consistent with what you would expect from a singleton in a 100-card deck. Of 741 instances that reached a player's hand, 74% were cast before the game ended. The rest stayed in hand, most likely because the game ended before a target appeared or before the player chose to use it.

What turn does Path to Exile typically get cast?

The median first-cast turn is 7.0, with a 25th-percentile of turn 5 and a 75th-percentile of turn 8. That distribution tells a clear story: Path to Exile is reactive removal. Players hold it until a meaningful threat needs answering, which naturally pushes the cast turn well past its 1-mana cost. The hand-to-cast data reinforces this: the median copy sits in hand for 2 turns before being played, and only 24% of drawn copies are cast the same turn they are drawn.

Does casting Path to Exile actually help you win?

In 537 participations where Path to Exile resolved, the caster's win rate was 28%. In 2086 participations where it stayed in the library untouched, the win rate was 24%. That is a +4.3 percentage-point difference. Both sample sizes are large, and the lower confidence bound sits just above zero, so this is an early but meaningful directional signal rather than a proven causal effect.

Is Path to Exile legal in Commander?

Yes. Path to Exile is legal and unrestricted in Commander, as well as in Legacy, Modern, Vintage, Historic, Timeless, Duel Commander, and several other formats. It is not legal in Standard, Pioneer, Pauper, or Pauper Commander. Its 1-mana cost and clean exile effect have made it a format staple since its original printing in Conflux.

Which commanders most often run Path to Exile?

Among Playgroup Live tracked decks, the commanders with the most Path to Exile copies are spread across a wide range of color identities that include White, from multicolor piles like Pantlaza, Sun-Favored and Ashling, the Limitless to mono-White commanders like Giada, Font of Hope. This breadth reflects Path to Exile being a format-agnostic staple rather than a synergy piece tied to any single strategy.

How concentrated is the Path to Exile data among individual players?

The data is well-spread. 961 distinct players have brought Path to Exile to at least one tracked game, and the single heaviest contributor accounts for only 1% of all tracked instances. That low concentration strengthens confidence that the numbers reflect broad play patterns rather than one prolific player's sessions skewing the results.