Forgotten Ancient
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Creature — Elemental
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Secrets of Strixhaven Commander (SOC)
Forgotten Ancient sits in just 4.3% of tracked Commander decks, but when it does hit the battlefield, players win 35% of those games — above the 25% baseline for a 4-player pod.
Forgotten Ancient is a niche inclusion: present in 72 of the 1,696 distinct decks tracked on Playgroup Live, a 4.3% inclusion rate that marks it as a deliberate counter-and-distribution piece rather than a format staple. Its home is firmly in the +1/+1 counter archetype.
The cast data tells a patient story. Median first cast lands on turn 7, well behind its printed mana cost of 4, and only 39% of drawn copies are cast the same turn they're drawn. Players hold it for a median of 2 turns before committing. Once it resolves, stickiness drops to 55%, lower than most value creatures, which tracks with how aggressively opponents remove a card that can funnel a mountain of counters anywhere it wants.
The win-rate delta warrants attention, though the sample is small. Games where Forgotten Ancient was cast show a 35% win rate versus 58% in games where it stayed in the library all game. That negative delta is directional: it likely reflects selection bias — the decks that draw and cast it are often in more interactive, spell-heavy pods where winning is harder for everyone, not just the Ancient's controller. Treat it as early signal, not a verdict on the card.
- 4.3% inclusion rate across tracked Commander decks
- T7 median first-cast turn, despite a mana cost of 4
- 61% of drawn copies are eventually cast before the game ends
- 55% battlefield stickiness once resolved
- 39% of drawn-and-cast instances were cast on the same turn they were drawn
- 2 median turns spent in hand before being cast
First-cast turn
n=29The "good card" funnel
155 broughtOf 114 copies brought to games, 31 were drawn and 20 of those were cast, a 61% draw-to-play rate that reflects patient pilots waiting for the right moment rather than slamming it on curve.
Players who cast this card win 41% of the time (n=29) , vs 53% when it never left the library (n=111).
Final zone distribution
155 instances81 of 114 brought copies finished in the library, the expected outcome for a low-inclusion singleton, but the 11 that ended on the battlefield signal it sticks when it resolves in the right game state.
Top commanders running this card
by deck count-
1
Zimone, Infinite Analyst
48 decks
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2
Me, the Immortal
13 decks
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3
Ms. Bumbleflower
9 decks
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4
Tidus, Yuna's Guardian
8 decks
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5
Hamza, Guardian of Arashin
7 decks
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6
Animar, Soul of Elements
5 decks
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7
Jenova, Ancient Calamity
5 decks
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8
Atraxa, Praetors' Voice
4 decks
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9
Kros, Defense Contractor
3 decks
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10
Minsc & Boo, Timeless Heroes
3 decks
Zimone, Infinite Analyst dominates the list with 40 decks — more than three times the next entry — pointing to a tight synergy between high spell volume and Forgotten Ancient's counter accumulation.
How often is Forgotten Ancient drawn in a game? ▾
In 114 tracked deck-participations, Forgotten Ancient was drawn 31 times, a draw rate of 27%. That is slightly above the structural baseline for a singleton in a 100-card deck, likely because many of the decks running it also run meaningful card draw. Of those 31 drawn instances, 20 were eventually cast, a draw-to-play rate of 61%.
What turn does Forgotten Ancient usually get cast? ▾
The median first-cast turn is 7, more than three turns after its 4-mana cost would suggest. The p25 is turn 5 and p75 is turn 8, so the cast window is wide. Only 15% of casts hit exactly on curve. The most common explanation is that players rarely draw it in the opening hand and tend to hold it once they do, waiting for a board state where the counter redistribution is most impactful.
Why do players hold Forgotten Ancient in hand rather than casting it immediately? ▾
The hand-to-cast data shows a median of 2 turns between drawing and casting, and only 39% of instances are cast the same turn they're drawn. Forgotten Ancient's power scales with how many spells get cast while it's on the battlefield. Waiting for a turn where multiple opponents are likely to cast spells, or where the player already has creatures ready to receive counters, is a rational line. The card rewards timing over speed.
What does the win-rate data say about Forgotten Ancient? ▾
Games where Forgotten Ancient was cast show a 35% win rate across 20 observations. Games where it stayed in the library show 58% across 81 observations. The negative delta of 23 percentage points is directional, but the cast bucket has only 20 data points, well below the threshold for confident conclusions. One likely factor is selection bias: spell-heavy, interactive pods generate more counters on the Ancient, making players more likely to cast it — and those pods are also more contested, lowering everyone's individual win rate.
Is Forgotten Ancient legal in Commander? ▾
Yes. Forgotten Ancient is legal in Commander and has no restrictions. It is also legal in Legacy, Vintage, Historic, Timeless, Duel Commander, Brawl, Premodern, and Oathbreaker. It is not legal in Modern, Pioneer, Standard, Pauper, or Pauper Commander.
Which commanders most commonly run Forgotten Ancient? ▾
Zimone, Infinite Analyst leads by a wide margin with 40 decks in the tracked sample, followed by Me, the Immortal at 12 and Ms. Bumbleflower at 8. The pattern is consistent: most top commanders are in Simic or Simic-adjacent color identities that can generate spells at volume and benefit from distributing +1/+1 counters across a creature base. Hamza, Guardian of Arashin is the outlier, leaning into counters matter rather than raw spell count.