January 2026
The Commander metagame across 25,979 casual games tracked on Playgroup.gg. Win rates, movers, community sentiment, and diversity metrics across 2,278 unique commanders.
Win rate change vs the previous month. Commanders need 15+ games in both months to qualify.
Zaffai, Thunder Conductor
Zevlor, Elturel Exile
Ghoulcaller Gisa
Saheeli, the Gifted
Lathliss, Dragon Queen
Beledros Witherbloom leads the risers with a 34.96-point win rate jump to 57.26% across 31 games. The Golgari life-gain engine has always rewarded tight sequencing, and January's data suggests the players bringing it to the table know exactly what they're doing. Omnath, Locus of the Roil follows with a 30.2-point surge to 56.67% over 15 games. The sample is small enough to treat with caution, but Temur's position as the top-performing color identity this month lends some credence to Omnath's resurgence. Ellie, Brick Master rounds out the risers with a 28.39-point climb, though her 36.72% win rate and mono-red identity suggest she's being piloted at higher volume rather than dominating. On the other side, Massacre Girl, Known Killer collapsed 39.6 points to a 11.36% win rate across 22 games. That is a brutal single-month reversal. Xavier Sal, Infested Captain sits at just 6.73%, the lowest win rate among the named fallers, dropping 32.56 points. Iron Spider, Stark Upgrade fell 33.12 points to 28.13%. All three fallers share small-to-mid sample sizes, so these swings reflect real losing streaks rather than broad metagame condemnation. Among new arrivals, Lathliss, Dragon Queen entered with 39 games and a 33.97% win rate. Zaffai, Thunder Conductor and Saheeli, the Gifted also made their first appearances this month in Izzet, a color identity that sits fifth overall in win rate at 28.4%.
How games ended in January 2026 across 25,979 tracked games.
54.6% of wins in January came through combat damage, up a half-point from December's 54.0%. Non-combat damage slipped from 21.9% to 20.8%, the most notable movement in the distribution. Combo held at 6.5%, a 0.3-point increase. The infinite combo rate sits at 5.0% of all games. Commander damage at 9.1% and alternative win conditions at 5.9% both shifted less than half a point. Mill ticked up to 1.9% from 1.6%. The overall shape of the win condition landscape is stable. Combat is dominant, combo is a real but minority presence, and nothing in the distribution signals a structural shift in how casual tables are closing out games.
68.2% of January's games received a rating, giving a solid read on table sentiment. The average fun score across all rated games landed at 3.74 out of 5, and the average salt score came in at 1.43 on the 1-to-3 scale. A 1.43 sits close to the low end of that range, indicating most losses across the month generated little friction. The saltiest commander this month is The Scarab God at 1.85 average salt across 27 games. On a 1-to-3 scale that sits in the middle third. The Scarab God's recursive threat loop and Dimir reanimation package have historically made opponents feel like the game drags out past the point of fun, and this month's losing players confirmed that pattern. Yusri, Fortune's Flame earned the highest fun rating at 4.51 out of 5 across 82 games. The coin-flip chaos at the center of Yusri's design clearly resonates at casual tables, generating memorable moments even for players who lose to it.
An MDI of 86 reflects a healthy meta where most commanders see balanced play, with 150 commanders needed to cover half of all games.
| Mar 2026 | Feb 2026 | Jan 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 85.6 | 85.2 | 85.6 |
25,979 games tracked in January, a 20.2% increase over the prior month. That volume, spread across 2,278 unique commanders, a 4.3% rise, gives this report its most substantial dataset since Playgroup Live launched tracking. The Meta Diversity Index sits at 85.6, rated "Healthy", with the top 10 commanders accounting for just 9.8% of all games. It takes 150 commanders to cover half the month's games. The format is not consolidating around a small power tier. It is spreading.
Ashling, the Limitless led all commanders in play volume with 1,224 games, followed by Auntie Ool, Cursewretch at 1,118 and Y'shtola, Night's Blessed at 961. None of those three appear in the top win rate or top ELO lists, which is consistent with a healthy meta: the most-played commanders are not the most dominant ones. At the ELO peak, Narset, Enlightened Master and Ob Nixilis, Captive Kingpin share the top score of 1,803, with Narset also posting the third-highest win rate at 54.58% across 71 games. Temur is January's best-performing color identity at 29.34% win rate over 3,003 games, with mono-Blue close behind at 29.27%. Grixis and Sultai sit at the bottom of color performance at 23.04% and 23.58% respectively.
Games averaged 8.8 rounds, unchanged from the prior month. Combo closes games fastest at 6.8 average rounds, while combat is the slowest win condition at 9.3 rounds. Seat one holds a meaningful structural edge at 29.8% win rate versus seat four's 23.0% across roughly 11,500 games each. Zero-mulligan hands win at 30.2%, and that advantage erodes gradually with each additional mulligan, bottoming at 25.5% for players who mulliganed three or more times. Community sentiment is net positive. Average fun at 3.74 out of 5 and average salt at 1.43 out of 3 describe a format where most games are remembered well by most of the people at the table.
February will test whether Beledros Witherbloom and Omnath, Locus of the Roil can sustain their January win rate surges at larger sample sizes. The continued expansion of the unique commander pool is the trend worth watching most. If the MDI holds above 80 as volume grows, it will be evidence that the format is genuinely broadening rather than cycling through a fixed roster of staple commanders.
This report covers all finished multiplayer games tracked through the Playgroup.gg app during January 2026. Win rates are normalized to a 4-player baseline (25% expected) so pod size differences are weighted fairly. A commander needs at least 20 games to appear in ranked lists.
Salt ratings are measured from losing players and attributed to the winning commander. The scale runs 1 (no salt) to 3 (very salty). Analysis sections are co-written with Claude. A Playgroup.gg editor reviews all content before publication.
How is the Playgroup.gg metagame report calculated?
Every finished multiplayer game tracked through the Playgroup app during the calendar month is included. Win rates are normalized to a 4-player baseline (25% expected) so pod size differences are weighted fairly. A commander needs at least 20 games to appear in ranked lists.
What is the Meta Diversity Index?
The Meta Diversity Index (MDI) uses Shannon entropy to measure how evenly commanders are distributed across games. A score of 100 means every commander is played equally. Below 70 indicates a few commanders dominate the meta. We normalize to a 0-100 scale so scores are comparable across months with different commander counts.
How is the salt rating calculated?
Salt ratings are collected from losing players after each game and attributed to the winning commander. The scale runs 1 (no salt) to 3 (very salty). This measures how opponents feel about losing to a particular commander, not how the winner feels. A rating of 1.4 means most games feel fine.
How is this different from EDHREC or EDHTop16?
EDHREC ranks by deck registration popularity. EDHTop16 tracks competitive tournament results. Playgroup.gg tracks actual casual game outcomes, including win rates, game length, community sentiment, and win conditions. This report covers 25,979 real games, not decklists or tournament finishes.
How many games were tracked in January 2026?
25,979 games were tracked across the full month of January, a 20.2% increase over the prior month. That volume covers 2,278 unique commanders, up 4.3% month over month. The dataset reflects casual Commander games logged through Playgroup Live and does not include tournament results or untracked home games.
How are win rates calculated and normalized?
Win rates reflect the percentage of games a commander won out of all games it was piloted. Because Commander is a multiplayer format with pods of 2 to 6 players, a win rate above 25% in a four-player pod is above expected baseline. Playgroup.gg does not apply a flat normalization across pod sizes, so win rates for commanders primarily played in smaller pods may naturally read higher than those played mostly in four-player games.
Does seat order affect win rates?
The data shows a consistent relationship between turn order and win rate in January. Seat one won 29.8% of games across roughly 11,500 games, while seat four won 23.0% across a similar sample. This first-mover advantage is a persistent pattern in Commander data and reflects the cumulative benefit of taking the first land drop, the first ramp spell, and the first aggressive action in each game.
Why do some top win rate commanders have small game counts?
The highest win rate list includes commanders with as few as 20 games, like Hidetsugu and Kairi at 57.5%. Small sample sizes mean individual results carry more weight, and a single strong player or a fortunate run of matchups can produce win rates that would not hold at larger volume. Playgroup.gg surfaces these results transparently with game counts so readers can weight them accordingly. Commanders with 50 or more games, like Narset, Enlightened Master at 71 games and 54.58%, represent more stable signals.