Live Play Data

Chaos Warp

· Instant · Marvel Super Heroes Commander (MSC)

30%

Live Inclusion

Buy on TCGplayer

Times Brought

2044

Decks Running

1144

Median Cast Turn

7.0

Drawn → Played

62%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

Chaos Warp sits in 30% of tracked Commander decks on Playgroup Live, drawn 23% of the time and cast 62% of the time it reaches a hand, with a median first cast landing on turn 7.0.

Chaos Warp is Red's go-to answer for permanents it otherwise cannot touch. Across 1686 tracked multiplayer Commander games on Playgroup Live, 30% of decks bring it to the table, making it one of the format's most consistent Red removal staples.

When a copy enters a player's hand, it converts to a cast 62% of the time. That figure reflects both deliberate use and games that ended before the card could be deployed. Median first cast lands on turn 7.0, consistent with a reactive instant held until a relevant threat appears on the other side of the table. Players average just over 2.6 turns with it in hand before casting, and only 29% of casts happen the same turn it's drawn, a clear signal that it's held as a response rather than slammed on sight.

The deck-inclusion rate from external decklists sits at roughly 14.6%, but the Playgroup Live play-based figure of 30% reflects the decks actually being sleeved up and played in tracked games. The commander spread is broad: 783 distinct players have brought it across the dataset, with no single contributor dominating the sample.

At a glance

30% of tracked Commander decks include Chaos Warp
23% draw rate across tracked games
62% of drawn copies were cast before the game ended
T7.0 median first-cast turn, consistent with reactive deployment
29% of casts happen the same turn it's drawn, confirming it's held as interaction

First-cast turn

n=298

10%

11%

61%

T6-9

11%

T10+

Median 7.0 P25 5 · P75 8 · max 15

On curve 6% (11 / 298 cast on T3) Cast same turn as drawn 29%

The "good card" funnel

2053 brought · 783 players

Brought to game

2053

Ever drawn

479

Reached battlefield

298

Still on board at game end

62%

Of 2053 Chaos Warps brought to games, 479 were drawn, 298 of those were cast, confirming it converts drawn copies at a solid rate for a reactive instant held for the right moment.

≥ -0.3pp

Players who cast this card win 28% of the time (n=295) , vs 24% when it never left the library (n=1406).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 32% (n=176) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +4.7pp; 95% confidence interval -0.3pp to +9.7pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

534 instances

5.2%

Library

2.4%

Battlefield

58.4%

Graveyard

8.2%

Exile

The overwhelming majority of Chaos Warp copies end the game in the graveyard after resolving or in hand, which is exactly what you'd expect from a single-use instant: it does its job once and is gone.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Doctor Doom, King of Latveria 40 decks
2 Rootha, Mastering the Moment 35 decks
3 Valgavoth, Harrower of Souls 31 decks
4 Krenko, Mob Boss 30 decks
5 Cloud, Ex-SOLDIER 29 decks
6 Bello, Bard of the Brambles 22 decks
7 Inspirit, Flagship Vessel 14 decks
8 Ureni of the Unwritten 14 decks
9 Deadpool, Trading Card 12 decks
10 Zada, Hedron Grinder 12 decks

The top commander list spans mono-Red, Izzet, Grixis, Gruul, and Naya commanders, showing Chaos Warp is broadly adopted across the entire Red slice of the color pie rather than concentrated in one archetype.

Frequently Asked

How often is Chaos Warp drawn and cast in a Commander game?

Across 1686 tracked games where Chaos Warp was in the deck, it was drawn 23% of the time. Of the 479 copies that reached a hand, 62% were cast before the game ended. The remainder largely reflects games that concluded before the card found a moment to be used.

What turn does Chaos Warp typically get cast?

Median first cast lands on turn 7.0, with the interquartile range spanning turns 5 through 8. The distribution peaks at turn 6. Only 29% of casts happen the same turn it's drawn, which tracks with its role as a reactive instant: players tend to hold it for the right target rather than casting it on arrival.

Does casting Chaos Warp correlate with winning?

Games where Chaos Warp reached the battlefield show a win rate of 28% across 295 observations. Games where it stayed in the library show 24% across 1406 observations. That gap is directional but the confidence interval just grazes zero, so treat it as an early signal rather than a firm conclusion. The most honest read: casting Chaos Warp does not seem to hurt your chances.

Why is Chaos Warp so widely played in Commander?

Red has historically poor access to permanent removal. Chaos Warp answers anything, including enchantments and planeswalkers that Red normally cannot deal with cleanly. The randomness of revealing the top card is the price paid for that flexibility, but at 3 mana as an instant it fits neatly into most Red-inclusive gameplans at any point in the game.

Which commanders most commonly run Chaos Warp?

The most frequent commanders in tracked Playgroup Live games include Doctor Doom, King of Latveria; Rootha, Mastering the Moment; and Valgavoth, Harrower of Souls, each appearing in over 29 tracked decks. The spread across Grixis, Izzet, Gruul, and mono-Red commanders confirms Chaos Warp is a format-wide Red staple rather than a niche piece for any single archetype.

Is Chaos Warp banned anywhere?

Chaos Warp is legal in Commander, Legacy, Vintage, Historic, Timeless, Duel Commander, Brawl, Gladiator, and Oathbreaker. It is not legal in Modern, Pioneer, Standard, Pauper, Pauper Commander, or PreDH. No Commander-format ban applies, so it remains an unrestricted include for any Red or Red-adjacent deck.