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Chaos Warp card art
Live Play Data

Chaos Warp

{2} {R} · Instant · Mystery Booster Commander Edition (MBC)
30%
Live Inclusion
Buy on TCGplayer
Times Brought
5740
Decks Running
2985
Median Cast Turn
7
Drawn → Played
63%
Format
Multiplayer 1v1

30% of tracked Commander decks run Chaos Warp, and when drawn it reaches the stack 63% of the time, with a median first-cast turn of 7.

Chaos Warp sits in 30% of the 10042 tracked Commander decks on Playgroup Live, making it one of red's most-played pieces of targeted removal. Across 4722 tracked games it has been brought to the table 5749 times, drawn 1319 times, and cast 831 times.

The draw-to-play figure of 63% reflects how often a drawn copy reaches the stack before the game ends. Median first cast lands on turn 7, consistent with the card's role as reactive removal held until a meaningful target appears rather than slammed at the first opportunity. The hand-to-cast data reinforces this: players hold the card for a median of 2 turns after drawing it before firing.

Red's removal suite is notoriously shallow in Commander, and Chaos Warp fills a gap no other mono-red instant can: it handles any permanent type, including enchantments and planeswalkers. The randomness of the replacement effect is the cost of that flexibility, and these numbers suggest players accept the risk readily across a wide spread of commanders and strategies.

At a glance
  • 30% of tracked Commander decks include Chaos Warp
  • 23% draw rate, normal for a singleton in a 100-card deck
  • 63% of drawn copies reach the stack before the game ends
  • T7 median first-cast turn
  • 1894 distinct players have brought Chaos Warp to a tracked game, showing broad spread
  • 831 total casts recorded across all tracked games

First-cast turn

n=831
0%
T1
1%
T2
3%
T3
10%
T4
15%
T5
58%
T6-9
13%
T10+
Median 7 P25 5 · P75 8 · max 25
On curve 5% (25 / 831 cast on T3) Cast same turn as drawn 28%

The "good card" funnel

5749 brought · 1894 players
Brought to game
5749
Ever drawn
1319
Reached battlefield
831
Still on board at game end
39
63%

Of 5749 Chaos Warps brought to games, 1319 were drawn, and 831 of those were cast, tracing a steady funnel from deck to stack across thousands of tracked participations.

≥ +0.2pp

Players who cast this card win 27% of the time (n=794) , vs 24% when it never left the library (n=3789).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 32% (n=433) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +3.3pp; 95% confidence interval +0.2pp to +6.4pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

1474 instances
3.3%
Library
2.6%
Battlefield
60.1%
Graveyard
8.8%
Exile

As an instant, Chaos Warp resolves to the graveyard in the vast majority of cases. The small battlefield count reflects the card's replacement effect sometimes putting it back into play via a chained reveal.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

Doctor Doom, King of Latveria leads the list with the most decks, but the top commanders span mono-red through three-color identities, showing Chaos Warp is a format-wide inclusion rather than a niche pick tied to one strategy.

Card text
Chaos Warp card

Chaos Warp

{2} {R}
Instant
The owner of target permanent shuffles it into their library, then reveals the top card of their library. If it's a permanent card, they put it onto the battlefield.
Mystery Booster Commander Edition (MBC) · Rare · Illustrated by Trevor Claxton

Frequently Asked

How often is Chaos Warp drawn in a Commander game?
In 4722 tracked games where Chaos Warp was in the deck, it was drawn 23% of the time. That is consistent with expectations for a singleton in a 100-card deck. Of the 1319 copies that reached a player's hand, 63% were cast before the game ended. The remainder were mostly still in hand when the game concluded, not held by choice.
What turn does Chaos Warp typically get cast?
Median first-cast turn is 7, with the bulk of casts clustered between turns 5 and 8. The distribution has a long tail, reaching as far as turn 25 in some games. That late-game skew reflects reactive play patterns: players hold Chaos Warp for the right permanent to target rather than casting it speculatively early.
Does casting Chaos Warp correlate with winning?
Win rate when cast is 27% across 794 observations, compared to 24% when the card stayed in the library across 3789 observations. The delta is a directional early signal, not a conclusive figure. The confidence interval on this dataset includes zero, so treat the lift as suggestive rather than proven.
How concentrated is the Chaos Warp data among a few players?
1894 distinct players have brought Chaos Warp to at least one tracked game. The single heaviest contributor accounts for just 1% of all instances. That is well below the threshold where one player's habits would skew the aggregate numbers, so the dataset is broadly representative of how the wider community uses the card.
Is Chaos Warp legal in Commander?
Yes. Chaos Warp is legal in Commander, as well as in Legacy, Vintage, Historic, Timeless, Brawl, Oathbreaker, and Duel Commander. It is not legal in Standard, Pioneer, Modern, or Pauper. It carries a red color identity, so it is only available to decks whose commander includes red.
Why is Chaos Warp so popular in Commander despite its randomness?
Red's permanent removal is structurally limited. Most red spells deal damage or destroy artifacts, leaving enchantments and planeswalkers largely out of reach. Chaos Warp handles any permanent type for just three mana, which is a unique effect in red's color pie. The replacement trigger that potentially puts a new permanent onto the battlefield for the opponent is the acknowledged downside, but the raw flexibility makes it a near-automatic inclusion in red-based Commander decks looking for answers.