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Chaos Warp card art
Live Play Data

Chaos Warp

{2} {R} · Instant · Marvel Super Heroes Commander (MSC)
31%
Live Inclusion
Buy on TCGplayer
Times Brought
1281
Decks Running
753
Median Cast Turn
7.0
Drawn → Played
60%
Format
Multiplayer 1v1

31% of tracked Commander decks with red in their identity run Chaos Warp. When drawn, 60% of copies are cast, with a median first-cast turn of 7.0.

Chaos Warp is red's most-played permanent removal spell in Commander, and the Playgroup Live numbers back that reputation. It sits in 31% of the 2451 tracked decks that have played a live game, appearing across 753 distinct lists spanning a wide range of commanders and strategies.

As a reactive instant, Chaos Warp is almost never cast on curve. The median first-cast turn is 7.0, well after its 3-mana cost would suggest, because players hold it until they have a target worth hitting. The hand-to-cast data confirms deliberate timing: the median copy sits in hand for 1 turn after being drawn before it resolves. 60% of drawn copies reach the graveyard via a cast, a solid conversion rate for a situational removal spell in a long-game format.

The win-rate delta between casts and uninteracted copies is a small positive signal at this sample size, but the standard error is wide enough that the direction is not conclusive. The more durable story is breadth: 533 distinct players have brought Chaos Warp to a tracked game, and the single heaviest contributor accounts for just 4% of all instances, meaning the data is well-spread across the player base.

At a glance
  • 31% of tracked Commander decks include Chaos Warp
  • T7.0 median first-cast turn, reflecting deliberate reactive timing
  • 60% of drawn copies are cast before the game ends
  • 533 distinct players have brought Chaos Warp to a tracked game
  • 24% draw rate across deck participations in tracked games

First-cast turn

n=186
1%
T1
2%
T2
3%
T3
9%
T4
10%
T5
65%
T6-9
10%
T10+
Median 7.0 P25 6 · P75 8 · max 15
On curve 6% (5 / 186 cast on T3) Cast same turn as drawn 31%

The "good card" funnel

1290 brought · 533 players
Brought to game
1290
Ever drawn
308
Reached battlefield
186
Still on board at game end
8
60%

Of 1290 Chaos Warps brought to games, 308 were drawn, and 186 of those were cast, a conversion that reflects deliberate hold-and-fire sequencing more than dead draws.

≥ -3.2pp

Players who cast this card win 28% of the time (n=184) , vs 25% when it never left the library (n=891).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 33% (n=118) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +3.2pp; 95% confidence interval -3.2pp to +9.6pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

346 instances
5.2%
Library
2.3%
Battlefield
58.7%
Graveyard
8.7%
Exile

The vast majority of Chaos Warp copies end in the graveyard after resolving, as expected for an instant. The small library and hand counts reflect games that ended before the card was cast, not permanent zone changes.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

Rootha, Mastering the Moment leads the list by a wide margin at 21 decks, but the spread across Izzet, Rakdos, Gruul, and mono-red commanders shows Chaos Warp is not tied to any single archetype.

Frequently Asked

How often is Chaos Warp drawn in a Commander game?
Across 1058 tracked multiplayer Commander games, Chaos Warp was drawn 24% of the time when it was in the deck. That is typical for a singleton in a 100-card deck. Of 308 drawn copies, 60% were cast before the game ended. The remainder were most often still in hand when the game concluded, not held back by choice.
What turn does Chaos Warp usually get cast?
The median first-cast turn is 7.0, with the 25th percentile at turn 6 and the 75th at turn 9. That spread is characteristic of a reactive removal spell: players wait for the right target rather than casting at the earliest opportunity. The hand-to-cast data shows a median of 1 turn sitting in hand after being drawn, with 31% of copies cast on the same turn they were drawn.
Does casting Chaos Warp actually improve your win rate?
In 184 observed participations where Chaos Warp was cast, the normalized win rate was 28%. In 891 participations where it stayed in the library untouched, the rate was 25%. The delta is a small positive signal, but the confidence interval crosses zero on this sample size. Treat it as directional rather than conclusive.
Is Chaos Warp legal in Commander?
Yes. Chaos Warp is legal in Commander, Duel Commander, Legacy, Vintage, Historic, Timeless, Oathbreaker, and Brawl. It is not legal in Modern, Pioneer, Standard, Pauper, or Pauper Commander. No Commander-format ban exists for it, which is part of why it has become red's go-to answer for problematic permanents the color otherwise cannot remove cleanly.
Why is Chaos Warp so popular in Commander specifically?
Red has almost no clean unconditional permanent removal outside of combat damage and direct damage to creatures. Chaos Warp fills that gap by targeting any permanent, regardless of type. The risk of the top-card reveal is real, but at 3 mana at instant speed, the flexibility is hard to replace. That structural role in mono-red and red-heavy decks explains the 31% inclusion rate across tracked decks.
Which commanders run Chaos Warp most often?
Among tracked decks on Playgroup Live, Rootha, Mastering the Moment leads with 21 decks, followed by Valgavoth, Harrower of Souls at 13 and Bello, Bard of the Brambles at 8. The list spans mono-red, Izzet, Rakdos, and Gruul strategies, reflecting how broadly Chaos Warp fits into any red shell that needs a flexible removal answer.