Counterspell
Counterspell sits in 39% of tracked Commander decks, and when it reaches a player's hand it resolves 55% of the time, with a median first-cast turn of 7.
Counterspell is in 39% of the 3699 distinct Commander decks that have played a tracked game on Playgroup Live. That figure covers any deck with at least one blue pip in its color identity and reflects genuine play choices rather than theoretical decklists.
The most telling number is draw-to-play rate. Of 707 times a Counterspell entered a player's hand, 55% reached the stack. That figure sits noticeably below the near-certain cast rates of proactive staples like Sol Ring, which makes sense: a reactive spell can only be cast when the right target presents itself. If no opponent plays something worth countering before the game ends, the card stays in hand. Median first cast lands on turn 7, later than most two-mana spells because players hold it until the moment matters.
Counterspell is legal in Commander and restricted to blue-identity decks. Its two-blue-mana cost makes it harder to splash than Negate or Swan Song, but that constraint is baked into its 39% inclusion figure across all tracked pods.
- 39% of tracked Commander decks include Counterspell
- 55% of drawn copies reached the stack before the game ended
- T7 median first-cast turn, reflecting reactive timing
- 30% win rate in games where Counterspell resolved, vs 23% when it never left the library
- 876 distinct players contributed Counterspell data, spread evenly across the dataset
- 26% draw rate per participation, consistent with a singleton in a 100-card deck
First-cast turn
n=387The "good card" funnel
2681 brought · 876 playersOf 2681 Counterspells brought to games, 707 were drawn, 387 of those were cast, with nearly all resolving straight to the graveyard as expected for an instant.
Players who cast this card win 30% of the time (n=381) , vs 23% when it never left the library (n=1777).
When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 28% (n=316) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.
Observed gap +7.8pp; 95% confidence interval +3.3pp to +12.3pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.
Final zone distribution
789 instancesThe graveyard is Counterspell's natural home: as an instant it resolves and moves there immediately, so the final-zone chart tells you how many copies were cast rather than how many stayed in play.
Commanders that played this card
in tracked games-
1
Y'shtola, Night's Blessed
22 decks
-
2
Fire Lord Azula
20 decks
-
3
Tony Stark // The Invincible Iron Man
20 decks
-
4
Atraxa, Praetors' Voice
17 decks
-
5
Aesi, Tyrant of Gyre Strait
16 decks
-
6
Jin Sakai, Ghost of Tsushima
14 decks
-
7
Jodah, the Unifier
14 decks
-
8
Oloro, Ageless Ascetic
14 decks
-
9
Vivi Ornitier
14 decks
-
10
Yuriko, the Tiger's Shadow
12 decks
The top-commander list spans mono-blue through five-color decks, confirming Counterspell is a broad blue staple rather than a card tied to any single archetype or strategy.