Live Play Data

The Watcher in the Water

· Legendary Creature — Kraken · The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth (LTR)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

199

Decks Running

Median Cast Turn

6.0

Drawn → Played

42%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=40

20%

18%

50%

T6-9

T10+

Median 6.0 P25 5 · P75 7 · max 10

On curve 43% (7 / 40 cast on T5) Cast same turn as drawn 19%

The "good card" funnel

199 brought · 88 players

Brought to game

199

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

Once cast, 59% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ -22.1pp

Players who cast this card win 18% of the time (n=20) , vs 22% when it never left the library (n=116).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 38% (n=28).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap -4.7pp; 95% confidence interval -22.1pp to +12.7pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

60 instances

5.0%

Library

21.7%

Battlefield

31.7%

Graveyard

1.7%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Arixmethes, Slumbering Isle 5 decks
2 Vnwxt, Verbose Host 5 decks
3 Whtz, the Bibliophile 5 decks
4 Kiora, Sovereign of the Deep 4 decks
5 Sensational Spider-Man 4 decks
6 Jon Irenicus, Shattered One 3 decks
7 Kenessos, Priest of Thassa 3 decks
8 Runo Stromkirk // Krothuss, Lord of the Deep 3 decks
9 Arjun, the Shifting Flame 2 decks
10 Bard, King of Dale 2 decks

Card text

The Watcher in the Water

Legendary Creature — Kraken

The Watcher in the Water enters tapped with nine stun counters on it. (If a permanent with a stun counter would become untapped, remove one from it instead.) Whenever you draw a card during an opponent's turn, create a 1/1 blue Tentacle creature token. Whenever a Tentacle you control dies, untap up to one target Kraken and put a stun counter on up to one target nonland permanent.

9 / 9

The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth (LTR) · Mythic · Illustrated by Chris Cold

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 740,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.