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Birthday Escape

· Sorcery · The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth (LTR)

Decklist Inclusion

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Times Brought

Decks Running

In Decks

312

Decklist Inclusion

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

Final zone distribution

33 instances

Not enough tracked games yet to show a reliable final-zone breakdown.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

The "good card" funnel

82 brought · 42 players

Brought to game

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

≥ -29.6pp

Players who cast this card win 29% of the time (n=19) , vs 36% when it never left the library (n=45).

Observed gap -7.2pp; 95% confidence interval -29.6pp to +15.2pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

First-cast turn

n=20

10%

50%

T6-9

10%

T10+

Median 6.0 P25 3 · P75 7 · max 10

On curve 10% (2 / 20 cast on T1)

20 of 100 times cast 20%

Full analysis unlocks as more games are tracked. Stats refresh nightly.

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Basic play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games; the full deep-dive page needs a larger, more diverse sample (at least 300 tracked games played by 10 or more different pilots, with no single pilot over 40 percent of the copies). Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 620,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.