Live Play Data

Bitter Downfall

· Instant · The Hobbit Eternal (HOC)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

163

Decks Running

106

Median Cast Turn

—

Drawn → Played

55%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=17

Not enough observed casts yet to show a reliable distribution.

The "good card" funnel

163 brought · 102 players

Brought to game

163

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

≥ -9.3pp

Players who cast this card win 28% of the time (n=16) , vs 15% when it never left the library (n=99).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +13.0pp; 95% confidence interval -9.3pp to +35.3pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

44 instances

2.3%

Library

68.2%

Graveyard

9.1%

Exile

20.5%

Hand

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

Card text

Bitter Downfall

Instant

This spell costs {3}

less to cast if it targets a creature that was dealt damage this turn. Destroy target creature. Its controller loses 2 life.

The Hobbit Eternal (HOC) · Uncommon · Illustrated by John Di Giovanni

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 710,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.