Live Play Data

Case of the Shifting Visage

· Enchantment — Case · Murders at Karlov Manor Commander (MKC)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

140

Decks Running

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

72%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=23

13%

61%

T6-9

T10+

Median 6 P25 5 · P75 8 · max 12

On curve 9% (1 / 23 cast on T3) Cast same turn as drawn 33%

The "good card" funnel

140 brought · 55 players

Brought to game

140

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

Once cast, 78% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ +0.0pp

Players who cast this card win 47% of the time (n=22) , vs 26% when it never left the library (n=80).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +20.6pp; 95% confidence interval +0.0pp to +41.2pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

50 instances

2.0%

Library

36.0%

Battlefield

42.0%

Graveyard

6.0%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Mirko, Obsessive Theorist 32 decks
2 Denzilore Fatehold 9 decks
3 Captain N'ghathrod 1 decks
4 Doctor Octopus, Master Planner 1 decks
5 Dragon Man, Reformed Robot 1 decks
6 Emet-Selch, Unsundered // Hades, Sorcerer of Eld 1 decks
7 Golbez, Crystal Collector 1 decks
8 Illuna, Apex of Wishes 1 decks
9 Jenny Flint 1 decks
10 Jon Irenicus, Shattered One 1 decks

Card text

Case of the Shifting Visage

Enchantment — Case

At the beginning of your upkeep, surveil 1. To solve — There are fifteen or more cards in your graveyard. (If unsolved, solve at the beginning of your end step.) Solved — Whenever you cast a nonlegendary creature spell, copy that spell. (The copy becomes a token.)

Murders at Karlov Manor Commander (MKC) · Rare · Illustrated by Chris Seaman

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 760,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.