Live Play Data

Changeling Outcast

· Creature — Shapeshifter · Outlaws of Thunder Junction Commander (OTC)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

609

Decks Running

327

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

76%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

Changeling Outcast turns up in 4% of tracked Commander decks, and when drawn, 76% of copies reach the battlefield, with a median first-cast turn of 5.

Changeling Outcast is a niche but reliable one-mana black creature that shows up in 4% of tracked Commander decks on Playgroup Live. Its unblockable body and universal creature-type coverage make it a natural fit for ninjutsu, vampire, rogue, and tribal-synergy strategies alike.

The draw-to-play rate of 76% reflects how quickly players move to cast it once it enters their hand. Median first cast lands on turn 5, though the distribution has a notable early cluster: a significant share of casts happen on turn 1, consistent with players keeping opening hands that include this one-drop. The on-curve rate of 21% is low, which is expected for a 1-mana card in Commander. Most copies are drawn after turn 1, so players cast it whenever it arrives rather than holding it.

The commander spread is wide and telling. Yuriko, the Tiger's Shadow and Satoru Umezawa lead the list, underscoring Changeling Outcast's primary role as an early unblockable body that enables ninjutsu. Edgar Markov and Olivia, Opulent Outlaw suggest meaningful vampire-tribal usage as well. Data here comes from 591 tracked multiplayer games across 304 distinct players, with the top individual contributor accounting for only 3% of instances, a well-spread sample.

At a glance

4% of tracked Commander decks include Changeling Outcast
76% of drawn copies are cast before the game ends
T5 median first-cast turn
54% battlefield stickiness once cast
304 distinct players have brought this card to a tracked game
21% on-curve cast rate, low because most copies are drawn after turn 1

First-cast turn

n=119

21%

11%

36%

T6-9

T10+

Median 5 P25 2 · P75 7 · max 16

On curve 21% (25 / 119 cast on T1) Cast same turn as drawn 56%

The "good card" funnel

611 brought · 304 players

Brought to game

611

Ever drawn

156

Reached battlefield

119

Still on board at game end

76%

Of 611 Changeling Outcasts brought to games, 156 were drawn, 119 of those were cast, showing a high conversion rate from hand to battlefield once the card is seen.

≥ -4.1pp

Players who cast this card win 22% of the time (n=110) , vs 18% when it never left the library (n=381).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 19% (n=33) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +4.0pp; 95% confidence interval -4.1pp to +12.1pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

169 instances

4.1%

Library

37.9%

Battlefield

31.4%

Graveyard

6.5%

Exile

Most Changeling Outcast copies that never left the library were simply not drawn in 591 tracked games, a structural reality of 100-card singleton rather than a reflection on the card's power.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

Yuriko and Satoru dominate the commander list with the largest deck counts, confirming that ninjutsu enablement is the primary reason players slot in Changeling Outcast. Vampire tribal commanders form a clear secondary cluster.

Card text

Changeling Outcast

Creature — Shapeshifter

Changeling (This card is every creature type.) This creature can't block and can't be blocked.

1 / 1

Outlaws of Thunder Junction Commander (OTC) · Common · Illustrated by Micah Epstein

Frequently Asked

How often is Changeling Outcast drawn in a Commander game?

In 591 tracked multiplayer games where Changeling Outcast was in the deck, it was drawn 26% of the time. That is typical for a singleton in a 100-card deck. Of the 156 instances that reached a hand, 76% were cast before the game ended.

What turn does Changeling Outcast usually hit the battlefield?

Median first-cast turn is 5. The distribution shows two clusters: a strong spike on turn 1 for players who drew it in their opening hand, and a longer tail running through turns 6-9 for copies drawn mid-game. The mode is turn 1, meaning it is the single most common cast turn when players do see it early.

Why does Changeling Outcast show up so often in Yuriko and Satoru decks?

Both commanders reward connecting a creature with the opponent before being cast. Yuriko, the Tiger's Shadow uses ninjutsu, which requires an unblocked attacker. Satoru Umezawa gives every creature in hand ninjutsu. Changeling Outcast is a one-mana creature that can never be blocked, making it a near-perfect ninjutsu enabler. Its universal creature-type coverage via Changeling also satisfies any tribal synergy those decks layer on top.

Is Changeling Outcast legal in Commander?

Yes. Changeling Outcast is legal in Commander, as well as Legacy, Modern, Vintage, Pauper, Duel Commander, Brawl, Historic, Timeless, Gladiator, Pauper Commander, and Oathbreaker. It is not legal in Standard, Pioneer, Alchemy, or Premodern.

Does casting Changeling Outcast improve your win rate?

In 110 participations where Changeling Outcast was cast, the normalized win rate was 22%. In 381 participations where it stayed in the library, the rate was 18%. The +4.0 percentage-point delta is a directional positive signal, but the confidence interval is wide enough that we treat this as early evidence rather than a firm conclusion.

How concentrated is this card among a small group of players?

The data is well spread. 304 distinct players have brought Changeling Outcast to a tracked game on Playgroup Live, and the single heaviest contributor accounts for only 3% of all instances. That breadth strengthens confidence in the trends shown here.