Live Play Data

Changeling Outcast

· Creature — Shapeshifter · Outlaws of Thunder Junction Commander (OTC)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

2086

Decks Running

985

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

77%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=377

23%

10%

12%

31%

T6-9

T10+

Median 4 P25 2 · P75 7 · max 16

On curve 23% (87 / 377 cast on T1) Cast same turn as drawn 58%

The "good card" funnel

2089 brought · 855 players

Brought to game

2089

Ever drawn

487

Reached battlefield

377

Still on board at game end

186

Once cast, 49% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ -1.2pp

Players who cast this card win 22% of the time (n=340) , vs 19% when it never left the library (n=1325).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 24% (n=99).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +3.4pp; 95% confidence interval -1.2pp to +8.0pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

542 instances

3.0%

Library

34.3%

Battlefield

36.7%

Graveyard

7.4%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

Card text

Changeling Outcast

Creature — Shapeshifter

Changeling (This card is every creature type.) This creature can't block and can't be blocked.

1 / 1

Outlaws of Thunder Junction Commander (OTC) · Common · Illustrated by Micah Epstein

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 750,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.