Live Play Data

Changeling Outcast

· Creature — Shapeshifter · Outlaws of Thunder Junction Commander (OTC)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

1166

Decks Running

590

Median Cast Turn

4.0

Drawn → Played

77%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=202

21%

11%

35%

T6-9

T10+

Median 4.0 P25 2 · P75 7 · max 16

On curve 21% (42 / 202 cast on T1) Cast same turn as drawn 58%

The "good card" funnel

1168 brought · 531 players

Brought to game

1168

Ever drawn

263

Reached battlefield

202

Still on board at game end

106

Once cast, 52% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ +1.2pp

Players who cast this card win 25% of the time (n=186) , vs 18% when it never left the library (n=750).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 25% (n=54).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +7.5pp; 95% confidence interval +1.2pp to +13.8pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

292 instances

3.8%

Library

36.3%

Battlefield

34.2%

Graveyard

7.5%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Yuriko, the Tiger's Shadow 68 decks
2 Satoru Umezawa 39 decks
3 Edgar Markov 35 decks
4 Ezio Auditore da Firenze 26 decks
5 Sauron, the Dark Lord 20 decks
6 Olivia, Opulent Outlaw 18 decks
7 Anowon, the Ruin Thief 17 decks
8 Dark Leo & Shredder 15 decks
9 The Ur-Dragon 14 decks
10 Homer, the Hermit 13 decks

Card text

Changeling Outcast

Creature — Shapeshifter

Changeling (This card is every creature type.) This creature can't block and can't be blocked.

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Outlaws of Thunder Junction Commander (OTC) · Common · Illustrated by Micah Epstein

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 690,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.