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Dark Deal

· Sorcery · Avatar: The Last Airbender Eternal (TLE)

Decklist Inclusion

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Times Brought

339

Decks Running

189

In Decks

1224

Decklist Inclusion

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

Card text

Dark Deal

Sorcery

Each player discards all the cards in their hand, then draws that many cards minus one.

Avatar: The Last Airbender Eternal (TLE) · Uncommon · Illustrated by Pisukev

Final zone distribution

77 instances

7.8%

Library

2.6%

Battlefield

59.7%

Graveyard

2.6%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Nekusar, the Mindrazer 40 decks
2 Sheoldred, the Apocalypse 25 decks
3 Tergrid, God of Fright // Tergrid's Lantern 21 decks
4 Tinybones, Bauble Burglar 15 decks
5 Kefka, Court Mage // Kefka, Ruler of Ruin 7 decks
6 Winter, Misanthropic Guide 6 decks
7 Doctor Doom, King of Latveria 4 decks
8 Sauron, the Dark Lord 4 decks
9 Nicol Bolas, the Ravager // Nicol Bolas, the Arisen 3 decks
10 Norman Osborn // Green Goblin 3 decks

The "good card" funnel

341 brought · 183 players

Brought to game

341

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

≥ -12.4pp

Players who cast this card win 26% of the time (n=29) , vs 21% when it never left the library (n=212).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 29% (n=32) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +4.4pp; 95% confidence interval -12.4pp to +21.2pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

First-cast turn

n=34

12%

50%

T6-9

12%

T10+

Median 6.0 P25 4 · P75 8 · max 11

On curve 18% (4 / 34 cast on T3) Cast same turn as drawn 27%

34 of 100 times cast 34%

Full analysis unlocks as more games are tracked. Stats refresh nightly.

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Basic play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games; the full deep-dive page needs a larger, more diverse sample (at least 300 tracked games played by 10 or more different pilots, with no single pilot over 40 percent of the copies). Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 650,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.