Live Play Data

Dark Deal

· Sorcery · Avatar: The Last Airbender Eternal (TLE)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

339

Decks Running

189

Median Cast Turn

6.0

Drawn → Played

49%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=34

12%

50%

T6-9

12%

T10+

Median 6.0 P25 4 · P75 8 · max 11

On curve 18% (4 / 34 cast on T3) Cast same turn as drawn 27%

The "good card" funnel

341 brought · 183 players

Brought to game

341

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

≥ -12.4pp

Players who cast this card win 26% of the time (n=29) , vs 21% when it never left the library (n=212).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 29% (n=32).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +4.4pp; 95% confidence interval -12.4pp to +21.2pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

77 instances

7.8%

Library

2.6%

Battlefield

59.7%

Graveyard

2.6%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Nekusar, the Mindrazer 40 decks
2 Sheoldred, the Apocalypse 25 decks
3 Tergrid, God of Fright // Tergrid's Lantern 21 decks
4 Tinybones, Bauble Burglar 15 decks
5 Kefka, Court Mage // Kefka, Ruler of Ruin 7 decks
6 Winter, Misanthropic Guide 6 decks
7 Doctor Doom, King of Latveria 4 decks
8 Sauron, the Dark Lord 4 decks
9 Nicol Bolas, the Ravager // Nicol Bolas, the Arisen 3 decks
10 Norman Osborn // Green Goblin 3 decks

Card text

Dark Deal

Sorcery

Each player discards all the cards in their hand, then draws that many cards minus one.

Avatar: The Last Airbender Eternal (TLE) · Uncommon · Illustrated by Pisukev

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 680,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.