Live Play Data

Dark Deal

· Sorcery · Avatar: The Last Airbender Eternal (TLE)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

893

Decks Running

429

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

55%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=109

10%

14%

57%

T6-9

T10+

Median 6 P25 5 · P75 8 · max 16

On curve 12% (11 / 109 cast on T3) Cast same turn as drawn 31%

The "good card" funnel

895 brought · 383 players

Brought to game

895

Ever drawn

199

Reached battlefield

109

Still on board at game end

≥ -1.8pp

Players who cast this card win 30% of the time (n=96) , vs 22% when it never left the library (n=574).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 21% (n=74).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +7.8pp; 95% confidence interval -1.8pp to +17.4pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

219 instances

5.0%

Library

4.1%

Battlefield

56.6%

Graveyard

7.8%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Nekusar, the Mindrazer 85 decks
2 Sheoldred, the Apocalypse 70 decks
3 Tergrid, God of Fright // Tergrid's Lantern 55 decks
4 Tinybones, Bauble Burglar 26 decks
5 Kefka, Court Mage // Kefka, Ruler of Ruin 25 decks
6 Winter, Misanthropic Guide 9 decks
7 Doctor Doom, King of Latveria 8 decks
8 Sauron, the Dark Lord 8 decks
9 Norman Osborn // Green Goblin 7 decks
10 Tinybones, the Pickpocket 7 decks

Card text

Dark Deal

Sorcery

Each player discards all the cards in their hand, then draws that many cards minus one.

Avatar: The Last Airbender Eternal (TLE) · Uncommon · Illustrated by Pisukev

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 710,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.