Live Play Data

Decisive Denial

· Instant · Secrets of Strixhaven Commander (SOC)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

320

Decks Running

172

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

63%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=41

15%

54%

T6-9

22%

T10+

Median 8 P25 6 · P75 9 · max 13

On curve 2% (1 / 41 cast on T2) Cast same turn as drawn 25%

The "good card" funnel

320 brought · 181 players

Brought to game

320

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

≥ -4.8pp

Players who cast this card win 33% of the time (n=36) , vs 23% when it never left the library (n=220).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 17% (n=24).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +10.3pp; 95% confidence interval -4.8pp to +25.4pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

69 instances

5.8%

Library

2.9%

Battlefield

59.4%

Graveyard

7.2%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Zimone, Infinite Analyst 78 decks
2 Pako, Arcane Retriever 13 decks
3 Bruce Banner // The Incredible Hulk 10 decks
4 Riku of Many Paths 10 decks
5 Kenessos, Priest of Thassa 8 decks
6 Aragorn, the Uniter 7 decks
7 Zimone, Paradox Sculptor 5 decks
8 Kiora, Sovereign of the Deep 4 decks
9 Arixmethes, Slumbering Isle 3 decks
10 Haldan, Avid Arcanist 3 decks

Card text

Decisive Denial

Instant

Choose one — • Target creature you control fights target creature you don't control. (Each deals damage equal to its power to the other.) • Counter target noncreature spell unless its controller pays {3}

Secrets of Strixhaven Commander (SOC) · Uncommon · Illustrated by Lorenzo Mastroianni

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 680,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.