Live Play Data

Fateful Tempest

· Sorcery · Secrets of Strixhaven Commander (SOC)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

223

Decks Running

131

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

48%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=29

14%

52%

T6-9

10%

T10+

Median 7 P25 5 · P75 8 · max 11

On curve 17% (4 / 29 cast on T3) Cast same turn as drawn 50%

The "good card" funnel

223 brought · 126 players

Brought to game

223

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

≥ +2.0pp

Players who cast this card win 49% of the time (n=25) , vs 26% when it never left the library (n=126).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 13% (n=28).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +23.2pp; 95% confidence interval +2.0pp to +44.4pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

71 instances

5.6%

Library

2.8%

Battlefield

47.9%

Graveyard

22.5%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Quintorius, History Chaser 107 decks
2 Prosper, Tome-Bound 3 decks
3 Mogis, God of Slaughter 2 decks
4 Codie, Vociferous Codex 1 decks
5 Hofri Ghostforge 1 decks
6 Jace, Multiverse Architect 1 decks
7 Karolina Dean, Runaway 1 decks
8 Kefka, Court Mage // Kefka, Ruler of Ruin 1 decks
9 Kenrith, the Returned King 1 decks
10 Kynaios and Tiro of Meletis 1 decks

Card text

Fateful Tempest

Sorcery

Council's dilemma — Starting with you, each player votes for past or present. You mill a card for each past vote, then Fateful Tempest deals damage to each opponent equal to the total mana value of cards milled this way. Exile the top card of your library for each present vote. Until the end of your next turn, you may play the exiled cards.

Secrets of Strixhaven Commander (SOC) · Rare · Illustrated by Jabari Weathers

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 740,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.