Live Play Data

Flare of Duplication

· Instant · Modern Horizons 3 (MH3)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

340

Decks Running

164

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

52%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=37

59%

T6-9

14%

T10+

Median 7 P25 5 · P75 8 · max 12

On curve 11% (3 / 37 cast on T3) Cast same turn as drawn 33%

The "good card" funnel

340 brought · 144 players

Brought to game

340

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

≥ +3.4pp

Players who cast this card win 49% of the time (n=36) , vs 29% when it never left the library (n=214).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 20% (n=32).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +20.2pp; 95% confidence interval +3.4pp to +37.1pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

81 instances

4.9%

Library

2.5%

Battlefield

44.4%

Graveyard

9.9%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Rograkh, Son of Rohgahh 16 decks
2 Etali, Primal Conqueror // Etali, Primal Sickness 10 decks
3 Krark, the Thumbless 6 decks
4 Kratos, God of War 5 decks
5 Krenko, Mob Boss 5 decks
6 Magda, Brazen Outlaw 5 decks
7 Clive, Ifrit's Dominant // Ifrit, Warden of Inferno 4 decks
8 Codie, Vociferous Codex 4 decks
9 Jaws, Relentless Predator 4 decks
10 Kefka, Court Mage // Kefka, Ruler of Ruin 4 decks

Card text

Flare of Duplication

Instant

You may sacrifice a nontoken red creature rather than pay this spell's mana cost. Copy target instant or sorcery spell. You may choose new targets for the copy.

Modern Horizons 3 (MH3) · Rare · Illustrated by Olivier Bernard

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 680,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.