Live Play Data

Flare of Duplication

· Instant · Modern Horizons 3 (MH3)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

844

Decks Running

375

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

45%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=79

10%

15%

53%

T6-9

T10+

Median 6 P25 5 · P75 8 · max 12

On curve 13% (5 / 79 cast on T3) Cast same turn as drawn 42%

The "good card" funnel

844 brought · 318 players

Brought to game

844

Ever drawn

175

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

≥ -5.0pp

Players who cast this card win 38% of the time (n=74) , vs 32% when it never left the library (n=545).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 34% (n=83).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +5.9pp; 95% confidence interval -5.0pp to +16.9pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

204 instances

5.4%

Library

3.4%

Battlefield

40.7%

Graveyard

12.7%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Rograkh, Son of Rohgahh 34 decks
2 Krenko, Mob Boss 25 decks
3 Etali, Primal Conqueror // Etali, Primal Sickness 17 decks
4 Kratos, God of War 15 decks
5 Magda, Brazen Outlaw 15 decks
6 Tymna the Weaver 10 decks
7 Clive, Ifrit's Dominant // Ifrit, Warden of Inferno 9 decks
8 Jaws, Relentless Predator 9 decks
9 Kefka, Court Mage // Kefka, Ruler of Ruin 9 decks
10 Fire Lord Azula 8 decks

Card text

Flare of Duplication

Instant

You may sacrifice a nontoken red creature rather than pay this spell's mana cost. Copy target instant or sorcery spell. You may choose new targets for the copy.

Modern Horizons 3 (MH3) · Rare · Illustrated by Olivier Bernard

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 710,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.