Live Play Data

Flare of Duplication

· Instant · Modern Horizons 3 (MH3)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

1108

Decks Running

477

Median Cast Turn

6.0

Drawn → Played

46%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=106

10%

13%

51%

T6-9

13%

T10+

Median 6.0 P25 5 · P75 8 · max 12

On curve 12% (8 / 106 cast on T3) Cast same turn as drawn 39%

The "good card" funnel

1108 brought · 401 players

Brought to game

1108

Ever drawn

231

Reached battlefield

106

Still on board at game end

≥ -6.0pp

Players who cast this card win 35% of the time (n=98) , vs 31% when it never left the library (n=714).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 33% (n=110).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +3.4pp; 95% confidence interval -6.0pp to +12.8pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

268 instances

4.9%

Library

4.1%

Battlefield

41.4%

Graveyard

11.9%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Rograkh, Son of Rohgahh 40 decks
2 Krenko, Mob Boss 29 decks
3 Magda, Brazen Outlaw 22 decks
4 Etali, Primal Conqueror // Etali, Primal Sickness 21 decks
5 Kratos, God of War 18 decks
6 Tymna the Weaver 11 decks
7 Vivi Ornitier 11 decks
8 Fire Lord Azula 10 decks
9 Jaws, Relentless Predator 10 decks
10 Kefka, Court Mage // Kefka, Ruler of Ruin 10 decks

Card text

Flare of Duplication

Instant

You may sacrifice a nontoken red creature rather than pay this spell's mana cost. Copy target instant or sorcery spell. You may choose new targets for the copy.

Modern Horizons 3 (MH3) · Rare · Illustrated by Olivier Bernard

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 740,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.