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Flare of Duplication

· Instant · Modern Horizons 3 (MH3)

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Times Brought

271

Decks Running

122

In Decks

—

Decklist Inclusion

—

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

Showing 1v1 (duel) data only. 1v1 is a different format from multiplayer Commander, so these numbers are not comparable.

Card text

Flare of Duplication

Instant

You may sacrifice a nontoken red creature rather than pay this spell's mana cost. Copy target instant or sorcery spell. You may choose new targets for the copy.

Modern Horizons 3 (MH3) · Rare · Illustrated by Olivier Bernard

Final zone distribution

48 instances

6.3%

Library

6.3%

Battlefield

33.3%

Graveyard

10.4%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Rograkh, Son of Rohgahh 10 decks
2 Magda, Brazen Outlaw 8 decks
3 Krenko, Mob Boss 7 decks
4 Etali, Primal Conqueror // Etali, Primal Sickness 6 decks
5 Vivi Ornitier 6 decks
6 Ob Nixilis, Captive Kingpin 5 decks
7 Ral, Monsoon Mage // Ral, Leyline Prodigy 5 decks
8 Krark, the Thumbless 4 decks
9 Kratos, God of War 4 decks
10 Tannuk, Steadfast Second 4 decks

The "good card" funnel

271 brought · 121 players

Brought to game

271

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

≥ -19.3pp

Players who cast this card win 23% of the time (n=15) , vs 29% when it never left the library (n=171).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 19% (n=18) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap -5.8pp; 95% confidence interval -19.3pp to +7.8pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

17 of 100 times cast 17%

Full analysis unlocks as more games are tracked. Stats refresh nightly.

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Basic play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games; the full deep-dive page needs a larger, more diverse sample (at least 300 tracked games played by 10 or more different pilots, with no single pilot over 40 percent of the copies). Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 650,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.