collections_bookmark Part of Modern Horizons 3
Flare of Malice card art
Card Preview

Flare of Malice

{2} {B} {B} · Instant · Modern Horizons 3 (MH3)
1%
Decklist Inclusion
Times Brought
156
Decks Running
90
In Decks
804
Decklist Inclusion
1%
Format

Final zone distribution

37 instances
2.7%
Library
2.7%
Battlefield
64.9%
Graveyard
10.8%
Exile

The "good card" funnel

157 brought · 83 players
Brought to game
157
Ever drawn
34
Reached battlefield
24
Still on board at game end
1
≥ -19.5pp

Players who cast this card win 30% of the time (n=24) , vs 31% when it never left the library (n=106).

Observed gap -0.7pp; 95% confidence interval -19.5pp to +18.1pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

First-cast turn

n=24
0%
T1
0%
T2
0%
T3
4%
T4
17%
T5
63%
T6-9
17%
T10+
Median 8.0 P25 6 · P75 9 · max 12
On curve 4% (1 / 24 cast on T4) Cast same turn as drawn 42%
24 of 100 times cast 24%

Full analysis unlocks as more games are tracked. Stats refresh nightly.

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?
Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Basic play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games; the full deep-dive page needs a larger, more diverse sample (at least 300 tracked games played by 10 or more different pilots, with no single pilot over 40 percent of the copies). Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.
How is Playgroup Live card data collected?
Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting.