collections_bookmark Part of Modern Horizons 3
Flooded Strand card art
Live Play Data

Flooded Strand

Land · Modern Horizons 3 (MH3)
10%
Live Inclusion
Times Brought
967
Decks Running
523
Median Cast Turn
4
Drawn → Played
69%
Format

Flooded Strand appears in 10% of tracked Commander decks on Playgroup Live, spread across 337 distinct players, with a median first activation on turn 4.

Flooded Strand is a fetch land with colorless identity, meaning it slots into any Commander deck that runs Plains or Islands. Across Playgroup Live's tracked games, it sits in 10% of decks. That's a selective number: most decks either lack white or blue entirely, or simply opt for budget alternatives.

The data is well-distributed. 337 distinct players have brought Flooded Strand to a tracked game, and the single heaviest contributor accounts for just 5% of all instances. That spread lends the numbers credibility. When drawn, it reaches the battlefield 69% of the time. The remainder is largely a game-length effect: copies drawn late often have no time to resolve before the game ends. Median first activation lands on turn 4, consistent with early-game mana fixing rather than a mid-game value play.

Fetch lands in Commander function as mana-base glue. Flooded Strand finds any Plains or Island, making it a staple in Azorius, Esper, Bant, and five-color builds. Its zero color identity means no commander restricts it. The top commanders in the tracked dataset reflect that reality: The Ur-Dragon and other multicolor commanders headline the list.

At a glance
  • 10% of tracked Commander decks include Flooded Strand
  • 23% draw rate, expected for a singleton in a 100-card deck
  • 69% of drawn copies were activated before the game ended
  • T4 median first-activation turn
  • 337 distinct players have brought this card to a tracked game

First-cast turn

n=157
27%
T1
12%
T2
9%
T3
15%
T4
8%
T5
24%
T6-9
6%
T10+
Median 4 P25 1 · P75 6 · max 14
Cast same turn as drawn 61%

The "good card" funnel

968 brought · 337 players
Brought to game
968
Ever drawn
227
Reached battlefield
157
Still on board at game end
7
69%

Of 968 copies brought to games, 227 were drawn, and 157 of those were activated. Battlefield stickiness is intentionally low because the card sacrifices itself on resolution.

≥ -3.7pp

Players who cast this card win 28% of the time (n=157) , vs 25% when it never left the library (n=676).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 35% (n=69) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +3.2pp; 95% confidence interval -3.7pp to +10.1pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

263 instances
3.8%
Library
2.7%
Battlefield
68.1%
Graveyard
8.7%
Exile

The vast majority of Flooded Strand copies never leave the library, a structural reality of 100-card singleton decks where even staples go unseen most games. The graveyard entries represent activated copies, which sacrifice themselves as part of their effect.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

The top commanders skew heavily toward blue-white and multicolor identities, which is exactly the structural constraint Flooded Strand imposes. Any deck lacking both Plains and Island types has no reason to include it.

Frequently Asked

How often is Flooded Strand drawn in a Commander game?
Across 722 tracked games where Flooded Strand was in the deck, it was drawn 23% of the time. That figure is typical for any singleton in a 100-card deck. Of the 227 instances that reached a player's hand, 69% were activated before the game concluded.
What turn does Flooded Strand usually get activated?
Median first activation falls on turn 4, which is consistent with using it as early mana fixing. The 25th percentile is turn 1, meaning a meaningful share of copies come down in the opening sequence. The 75th percentile stretches to turn 6, reflecting copies drawn later in the game that still see use.
Is Flooded Strand legal in Commander?
Yes. Flooded Strand is legal and unrestricted in Commander. It is banned in Pioneer and Historic. It is legal in Legacy, Modern, Vintage, and several other formats. Its colorless identity means it is never restricted by a commander's color identity.
How concentrated is the Flooded Strand data among players?
The data is well-spread. 337 distinct players have brought Flooded Strand to a tracked game on Playgroup Live. The single most active contributor accounts for 5% of all instances, which is low. This breadth strengthens confidence in the directional signals the data shows, even though the overall sample remains modest.
Which commanders most often run Flooded Strand?
The Ur-Dragon leads the tracked dataset, which makes sense: five-color commanders need consistent access to all basic land types, and Flooded Strand fetches both Plains and Island. Esper commanders like Y'shtola and Jin Sakai follow closely. The common thread is blue and white in the color identity, since Flooded Strand cannot search for anything else.
Does casting Flooded Strand improve your win rate?
In 157 participations where Flooded Strand was activated, the normalized win rate was 28%. In participations where it stayed in the library, the rate was 25%. The delta is +3.2 percentage points. Both sample sizes are large enough to treat this as a directional signal, but fetch lands are mana fixers rather than win conditions, so a small lift is expected and expected to stay small.