Grave Pact
36% of games where Grave Pact resolved ended in a win for the caster, a +12.7 percentage-point lift over the 23% baseline when it never left the library.
Grave Pact sits in 5% of the 9766 Commander decks tracked on Playgroup Live, a focused but committed player base spread across 398 distinct players. When it resolves, casters win 36% of the time, compared to 23% when the card never sees play. That +12.7 percentage-point gap is the clearest signal in its numbers.
The card costs 4 mana and lands on the battlefield on turn 6 at the median, which is later than its mana value alone might suggest. Only 23% of casts hit exactly on curve. Most copies are drawn after the early turns have passed, and 37% of drawn copies that do get cast go down the same turn they are drawn. Players do not tend to hold it once they have the mana and the board state to support it.
The commander distribution skews heavily mono-black and sacrifice-themed. Sephiroth, Marrow-Gnawer, and Teysa Karlov lead the field, all strategies that generate a steady stream of dying creatures to trigger Grave Pact repeatedly. 64% of resolved copies survive to the final game state, a reasonable retention rate for a four-mana enchantment that paints a target on the caster immediately.
- 5% of tracked Commander decks include Grave Pact
- T6 median first-cast turn, typically after the board is established
- 36% win rate in games where Grave Pact reached the battlefield
- 70% of drawn copies were cast before the game ended
- 64% battlefield stickiness once it resolves
- 398 distinct players have brought Grave Pact to a tracked game
First-cast turn
n=129The "good card" funnel
861 brought · 398 playersOf 861 Grave Pacts brought to games, 184 were drawn, 129 of those were cast, and 64% of resolved copies remained on the battlefield at game's end.
Players who cast this card win 36% of the time (n=115) , vs 23% when it never left the library (n=556).
When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 16% (n=52) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.
Observed gap +12.7pp; 95% confidence interval +4.2pp to +21.2pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.
Final zone distribution
207 instancesMost Grave Pacts in a tracked game never leave the library, a structural reality of 100-card singleton decks rather than a reflection of the card's power when it does resolve.
Commanders that played this card
in tracked games-
1
Sephiroth, Fabled SOLDIER // Sephiroth, One-Winged Angel
43 decks
-
2
Marrow-Gnawer
24 decks
-
3
Teysa Karlov
23 decks
-
4
The Serpent Society
18 decks
-
5
Wilhelt, the Rotcleaver
17 decks
-
6
Tergrid, God of Fright // Tergrid's Lantern
13 decks
-
7
Rat King, Verminister
12 decks
-
8
Vren, the Relentless
10 decks
-
9
Athreos, God of Passage
9 decks
-
10
Meren of Clan Nel Toth
9 decks
The top commander list is dominated by mono-black sacrifice strategies, with Sephiroth, Marrow-Gnawer, and Teysa Karlov leading, showing how tightly Grave Pact clusters around decks built around creature death.