Live Play Data

Killian's Confidence

· Sorcery · Secrets of Strixhaven (SOS)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

143

Decks Running

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

72%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=23

13%

26%

43%

T6-9

17%

T10+

Median 6 P25 5 · P75 8 · max 11

On curve 0% (0 / 23 cast on T2) Cast same turn as drawn 22%

The "good card" funnel

143 brought · 47 players

Brought to game

143

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

≥ -19.8pp

Players who cast this card win 32% of the time (n=23) , vs 31% when it never left the library (n=99).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +0.5pp; 95% confidence interval -19.8pp to +20.7pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

35 instances

2.9%

Library

62.9%

Graveyard

8.6%

Exile

25.7%

Hand

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Ardbert, Warrior of Darkness 14 decks
2 Silverquill, the Disputant 6 decks
3 Abigale, Poet Laureate // Heroic Stanza 4 decks
4 Karlov of the Ghost Council 2 decks
5 Nephilim Epochal 2 decks
6 Shadrix Silverquill 2 decks
7 Squall, SeeD Mercenary 2 decks
8 Drana and Linvala 1 decks
9 Edgar, Ancient Bloodlord 1 decks
10 Eirdu, Carrier of Dawn // Isilu, Carrier of Twilight 1 decks

Card text

Killian's Confidence

Sorcery

Target creature gets +1/+1 until end of turn. Draw a card. Whenever one or more creatures you control deal combat damage to a player, you may pay {W/B}

. If you do, return this card from your graveyard to your hand.

Secrets of Strixhaven (SOS) · Uncommon · Illustrated by Jodie Muir

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 780,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.