Live Play Data

Loran of the Third Path

· Legendary Creature — Human Artificer · Murders at Karlov Manor Commander (MKC)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

822

Decks Running

435

Median Cast Turn

6.0

Drawn → Played

68%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

7% of tracked Commander decks run Loran of the Third Path. When drawn, 68% of copies reach the battlefield, with a median first-cast turn of 6.0.

Loran of the Third Path appears in 7% of Commander decks tracked on Playgroup Live, across 435 of the 5816 distinct decks that have played a recorded game. That puts her in a niche but consistent role: a 3-mana white creature that earns her slot through immediate artifact-or-enchantment removal on entry and a repeatable group-draw ability that pressures the table without giving any single opponent an unfair advantage.

The key behavioral signal is draw-to-play rate. 68% of drawn Lorans are cast before the game ends. Median first cast lands on turn 6.0, which tracks with her 3-mana cost and the reality that she rarely shows up in opening hands. Players who do find her tend to move quickly: median time from draw to cast is just one turn, though the same-turn cast rate of 33% suggests she often waits one beat, likely for mana or a clean window.

Battlefield stickiness of 45% is below the all-card average, which reflects her role as a removal target. A 2/1 body with vigilance draws immediate answers in many pods. Her value is front-loaded on the enter-the-battlefield trigger, so even a quick removal response still nets the controller an artifact or enchantment destruction. The tap draw ability is a long-game upside that many Lorans never reach.

At a glance

7% of tracked Commander decks include Loran of the Third Path
68% of drawn Lorans are cast before the game ends
T6.0 median first-cast turn across all tracked games
45% battlefield stickiness once cast, reflecting her high threat profile
369 distinct players have brought Loran to a tracked game, a well-spread sample
25% draw rate, consistent with a singleton in a 100-card deck

First-cast turn

n=142

12%

16%

46%

T6-9

13%

T10+

Median 6.0 P25 5 · P75 8 · max 19

On curve 13% (12 / 142 cast on T3) Cast same turn as drawn 33%

The "good card" funnel

822 brought · 369 players

Brought to game

822

Ever drawn

208

Reached battlefield

142

Still on board at game end

68%

Of 822 Lorans brought to tracked games, 208 were drawn, 142 of those were cast, and 45% of cast copies survived to end of game.

≥ -2.9pp

Players who cast this card win 33% of the time (n=139) , vs 27% when it never left the library (n=553).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 34% (n=63) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +5.1pp; 95% confidence interval -2.9pp to +13.1pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

226 instances

3.1%

Library

28.3%

Battlefield

37.2%

Graveyard

8.8%

Exile

Most Lorans never leave the library, which is expected for any singleton in a 100-card deck. Among copies that were seen, graveyard finishes outpace battlefield finishes, consistent with her status as a removal priority once she resolves.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Ms. Bumbleflower 65 decks
2 Queen Marchesa 14 decks
3 Nelly Borca, Impulsive Accuser 12 decks
4 Anti-Venom, Horrifying Healer 11 decks
5 Arabella, Abandoned Doll 10 decks
6 Terra, Herald of Hope 10 decks
7 Kwain, Itinerant Meddler 9 decks
8 Elesh Norn, Mother of Machines 8 decks
9 Gluntch, the Bestower 8 decks
10 Brago, King Eternal 7 decks

Ms. Bumbleflower accounts for a large share of Loran decks in the dataset, but the commander list spans at least six different color identities, showing her appeal reaches well beyond any single archetype.

Frequently Asked

How often is Loran of the Third Path drawn in a Commander game?

In 787 tracked multiplayer games where Loran was in the deck, she was drawn 25% of the time. That is normal for a singleton in a 100-card deck. Of 208 copies that reached a player's hand, 68% were cast before the game ended. The rest were largely a game-length effect: copies drawn very late often have no window to resolve.

What turn does Loran usually enter the battlefield?

Median first-cast turn is 6.0, with the middle 50% of casts falling between turns 4 and 8. The distribution is fairly spread, reflecting that she is rarely in opening hands. On-curve rate is 13%, meaning most casts happen after turn 3 rather than exactly on it. That is typical for a 3-mana card that enters the game after early ramp or setup.

Does casting Loran actually improve your chances of winning?

In 139 participations where Loran resolved, the normalized win rate is 33%. In 553 participations where she stayed in the library, it is 27%. The delta is +5.1 percentage points. Both sample buckets are meaningful in size, but the confidence interval on this delta crosses zero at the lower bound, so treat it as a directional positive signal rather than a definitive causal claim.

Is Loran of the Third Path banned in any formats?

Loran is legal in Commander, Duel Commander, Legacy, Modern, Pioneer, Vintage, Historic, Timeless, and Oathbreaker. She is not legal in Standard, Pauper, or Pauper Commander. No current ban applies to any of the formats where she sees significant play.

Which commanders most often run Loran of the Third Path?

Ms. Bumbleflower leads by a wide margin in the Playgroup Live dataset, followed by Queen Marchesa, Arabella Abandoned Doll, Anti-Venom Horrifying Healer, and Nelly Borca Impulsive Accuser. The spread across Azorius, Boros, Mardu, and Bant color identities reflects Loran's generalist value: white artifact-enchantment removal plus group draw is useful across many archetypes, not just one strategy.

How spread is the Loran data across different players?

369 distinct players have brought Loran to a tracked game on Playgroup Live. The single heaviest contributor accounts for only 25% of all instances, well below the 15% threshold that would signal concentrated data. This is a well-distributed sample, which adds confidence that the behavioral numbers reflect broad play patterns rather than one player's habits.