Live Play Data

Manaform Hellkite

· Creature — Dragon · Secrets of Strixhaven Commander (SOC)

Live Inclusion

Buy on TCGplayer

Times Brought

382

Decks Running

191

Median Cast Turn

6.0

Drawn → Played

69%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=68

10%

18%

49%

T6-9

16%

T10+

Median 6.0 P25 5 · P75 8 · max 13

On curve 18% (7 / 68 cast on T4) Cast same turn as drawn 26%

The "good card" funnel

382 brought · 172 players

Brought to game

382

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

Once cast, 49% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ -1.8pp

Players who cast this card win 33% of the time (n=62) , vs 23% when it never left the library (n=244).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 22% (n=29).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +10.0pp; 95% confidence interval -1.8pp to +21.7pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

107 instances

2.8%

Library

30.8%

Battlefield

31.8%

Graveyard

13.1%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Rootha, Mastering the Moment 91 decks
2 Shiko and Narset, Unified 36 decks
3 Prismari, the Inspiration 6 decks
4 Firkraag, Cunning Instigator 5 decks
5 Ashling, Rekindled // Ashling, Rimebound 4 decks
6 Torbran, Thane of Red Fell 4 decks
7 Veyran, Voice of Duality 3 decks
8 Bria, Riptide Rogue 2 decks
9 Gandalf, Goblins' Bane // Flameshape 2 decks
10 The Ur-Dragon 2 decks

Card text

Manaform Hellkite

Creature — Dragon

Flying Whenever you cast a noncreature spell, create an X/X red Dragon Illusion creature token with flying and haste, where X is the amount of mana spent to cast that spell. Exile that token at the beginning of the next end step.

4 / 4

Secrets of Strixhaven Commander (SOC) · Mythic · Illustrated by Andrew Mar

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 710,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.