Live Play Data

Mission Briefing

· Instant · Murders at Karlov Manor Commander (MKC)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

172

Decks Running

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

63%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=31

10%

29%

48%

T6-9

13%

T10+

Median 6 P25 5 · P75 8 · max 14

On curve 0% (0 / 31 cast on T2) Cast same turn as drawn 33%

The "good card" funnel

172 brought · 84 players

Brought to game

172

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

≥ +3.0pp

Players who cast this card win 40% of the time (n=29) , vs 19% when it never left the library (n=93).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +21.1pp; 95% confidence interval +3.0pp to +39.2pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

59 instances

5.1%

Library

1.7%

Battlefield

54.2%

Graveyard

15.3%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Mirko, Obsessive Theorist 19 decks
2 Sauron, the Dark Lord 6 decks
3 Denzilore Fatehold 5 decks
4 Marvo, Deep Operative 5 decks
5 Ghyrson Starn, Kelermorph 3 decks
6 Namor the Sub-Mariner 3 decks
7 Ashling, Rekindled // Ashling, Rimebound 2 decks
8 Baral, Chief of Compliance 2 decks
9 Fire Lord Azula 2 decks
10 Glarb, Calamity's Augur 2 decks

Card text

Mission Briefing

Instant

Surveil 2, then choose an instant or sorcery card in your graveyard. You may cast it this turn. If that spell would be put into your graveyard, exile it instead. (To surveil 2, look at the top two cards of your library, then put any number of them into your graveyard and the rest on top of your library in any order.)

Murders at Karlov Manor Commander (MKC) · Rare · Illustrated by Matt Stewart

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 690,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.