Live Play Data

Notion Rain

· Sorcery · Murders at Karlov Manor Commander (MKC)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

128

Decks Running

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

77%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=27

11%

22%

11%

44%

T6-9

11%

T10+

Median 6 P25 4 · P75 7 · max 12

On curve 11% (3 / 27 cast on T3) Cast same turn as drawn 36%

The "good card" funnel

128 brought · 60 players

Brought to game

128

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

≥ -6.9pp

Players who cast this card win 41% of the time (n=24) , vs 26% when it never left the library (n=75).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +14.3pp; 95% confidence interval -6.9pp to +35.4pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

43 instances

67.4%

Graveyard

16.3%

Exile

16.3%

Hand

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Mirko, Obsessive Theorist 30 decks
2 Codie, Vociferous Codex 2 decks
3 Nashi, Searcher in the Dark 2 decks
4 Nicol Bolas, the Ravager // Nicol Bolas, the Arisen 2 decks
5 Taskmaster, Mercenary Mimic 2 decks
6 Alela, Artful Provocateur 1 decks
7 Anhelo, the Painter 1 decks
8 Captain N'ghathrod 1 decks
9 Gale, Waterdeep Prodigy 1 decks
10 Gisa and Geralf 1 decks

Card text

Notion Rain

Sorcery

Surveil 2, then draw two cards. Notion Rain deals 2 damage to you. (To surveil 2, look at the top two cards of your library, then put any number of them into your graveyard and the rest on top of your library in any order.)

Murders at Karlov Manor Commander (MKC) · Common · Illustrated by Lius Lasahido

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 760,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.