Live Play Data

Preordain

· Sorcery · Tarkir: Dragonstorm Commander (TDC)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

1022

Decks Running

588

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

72%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

Preordain is in 8% of tracked Commander decks on Playgroup Live. Of 272 instances drawn, 72% were cast, with a median first-cast turn of 4.

Preordain sits in 8% of the 7624 distinct Commander decks that have played a tracked game on Playgroup Live, spread across 491 unique players. No single contributor dominates the data: the heaviest single-player share is just 3% of all instances, which gives the numbers a solid spread.

As a one-mana cantrip, Preordain is fundamentally a consistency tool rather than a threat. It sculpts your next draw rather than winning games on its own. The stats reflect that role: the card resolves to the graveyard almost every time it is cast, and its value is felt in the cards it sets up rather than in any board presence. 72% of drawn copies were cast before the game ended, and the median first-cast turn is 4.

Preordain is legal in Commander and most other sanctioned formats. It is banned in Historic. Within the blue identity space of Commander, it clusters most heavily in spell-slinger and draw-matters commanders who prize both the scry and the card replacement on the same one-mana investment.

At a glance

8% of tracked Commander decks include Preordain
27% draw rate across tracked games
72% of drawn Preordains were cast before the game ended
T4 median first-cast turn
491 unique players have brought Preordain to a tracked game
20% of casts landed on-curve at turn 1, the rest coming later

First-cast turn

n=197

20%

14%

10%

11%

29%

T6-9

T10+

Median 4 P25 2 · P75 7 · max 19

On curve 20% (39 / 197 cast on T1) Cast same turn as drawn 57%

The "good card" funnel

1023 brought · 491 players

Brought to game

1023

Ever drawn

272

Reached battlefield

197

Still on board at game end

72%

Of 1023 Preordains brought to games, 272 were drawn and 197 of those were cast, with nearly all copies resolving cleanly to the graveyard as the scry-and-draw resolved.

≥ -0.2pp

Players who cast this card win 30% of the time (n=181) , vs 24% when it never left the library (n=624).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 34% (n=66) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +6.5pp; 95% confidence interval -0.2pp to +13.2pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

303 instances

3.6%

Library

1.0%

Battlefield

65.3%

Graveyard

12.9%

Exile

The vast majority of Preordains end in the graveyard after resolving, exactly as expected for a sorcery that draws a card. The handful finishing elsewhere reflect exiled copies or the rare uncast instance left in hand at game's end.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

The top-commander list spans Izzet, Dimir, Simic, and Jeskai identities, showing Preordain earns a slot in any blue shell that values early library manipulation rather than being pigeonholed into one archetype.

Frequently Asked

How often is Preordain drawn in a Commander game?

Across 973 tracked games where Preordain was in a deck, it was drawn 27% of the time. That figure is in the normal range for a singleton in a 100-card deck. Of the 272 instances that reached a player's hand, 72% were cast before the game concluded.

What turn does Preordain usually get cast?

Median first cast lands on turn 4. The mode is turn 1, driven by copies kept in opening hands, but the distribution stretches out to turn 19 in the longest games. The interquartile range runs from turn 2 to turn 7, so most casts happen in the early-to-mid game when sculpting the next few draws matters most.

Does casting Preordain improve your chances of winning?

In 181 participations where Preordain was cast, the normalized win rate was 30%, compared to 24% when it stayed in the library across 624 participations. The delta is a directional early signal, not a conclusive result. Both sample sizes are large enough to note, but the confidence interval for the lift crosses zero in the current data, so treat it as consistent with a real effect rather than proven.

Is Preordain banned anywhere?

Preordain is legal in Commander, Legacy, Modern, Vintage, Pauper, and several other formats. It is banned in Historic and not legal in Standard, Pioneer, or Alchemy. It was banned in Modern for many years before being unbanned in 2024, which contributed to renewed interest in the card across competitive formats.

Why does Preordain show up so much in Izzet and spell-slinger decks?

Preordain fits naturally into commanders that reward casting instants and sorceries. The scry 2 filters toward combo pieces or payoffs, and the cantrip replaces itself, keeping spell count high for triggers from commanders like Vivi Ornitier, Stella Lee, Veyran, and Niv-Mizzet. The card costs only one blue mana, so it fits easily into any turn without disrupting the mana curve.

How concentrated is the Preordain data among individual players?

The data is well-spread. 491 distinct players have brought Preordain to a tracked game on Playgroup Live, and the single heaviest contributor accounts for just 3% of all instances. That breadth strengthens confidence that the numbers reflect broad play patterns rather than the habits of a single prolific player.