Smoldering Marsh card art
Live Play Data

Smoldering Marsh

Land — Swamp Mountain · Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Eternal (TMC)
10%
Deck Inclusion
Games Tracked
330
Decks Running
240
Median Cast Turn
4
Drawn → Played
73%

Smoldering Marsh appears in 10% of tracked Commander decks on Playgroup Live. When drawn, 77% of copies are played before the game ends, and the card sticks on the battlefield 94% of the time once it resolves.

Smoldering Marsh sits in 10% of the 1,698 Commander decks tracked on Playgroup Live, a focused inclusion rate that reflects its strict {B}{R} color identity requirement. Across 215 tracked games, it has appeared in 170 distinct decklists and been brought to the table 242 times.

The draw-to-play rate tells the most important story: 77% of drawn copies are played before the game ends. That is a strong number for a land, where the practical ceiling is lower than for spells. The median first-cast turn of 4 and a same-turn play rate of 60% suggest players drop it the moment it fits their mana plan rather than holding it strategically. Battlefield stickiness of 94% confirms that once Smoldering Marsh is in play, it stays there. Lands rarely get removed, and this card is no exception.

The win-rate delta between games where the card was cast (38.9%) and games where it stayed in the library (37.4%) is just 1.5 percentage points. Both buckets have solid observation counts, and the gap is small enough to read as a land doing its job rather than swinging outcomes on its own. That is exactly what a dual land should look like in the data.

At a glance
  • 10% inclusion rate across all tracked Commander decks
  • 77% of drawn copies played before the game ends
  • T4 median first-cast turn
  • 94% battlefield stickiness once it enters play
  • 60% of drawn copies played the same turn they were drawn
  • +1.5pp win-rate lift when cast vs. sitting in the library

First-cast turn

n=74
26%
T1
3%
T2
15%
T3
12%
T4
11%
T5
24%
T6-9
9%
T10+
Median 4 P25 1 · P75 6 · max 12
Cast same turn as drawn 64%

The "good card" funnel

374 brought
Brought to game
374
Ever drawn
90
Reached battlefield
74
Still on board at game end
68
73%

242 copies were brought to games, 62 were drawn, 54 of those were cast, and 51 were still on the battlefield when the game ended, a tight chain that reflects how reliably a land converts from hand to play.

+1.4pp

Players who cast this card win 41% of the time (n=74) , vs 39% when it never left the library (n=276).

Final zone distribution

374 instances
73.8%
Library
18.2%
Battlefield
3.5%
Graveyard
0.5%
Exile

174 of 242 brought copies never left the library, a structural consequence of 100-card singleton rather than a sign of weakness. Of the copies that did move, 51 ended on the battlefield and only 9 in the graveyard, a clean result for a land.

Top commanders running this card

by deck count

The commander list spans ten different commanders across five color combinations, but all share {B}{R}. Asmoranomardicadaistinaculdacar leads at 13 decks, and no single commander dominates the distribution, indicating broad adoption across the entire Rakdos-touching meta.

Frequently Asked
How often is Smoldering Marsh drawn in a Commander game?

In the Playgroup Live dataset, Smoldering Marsh was drawn in 26% of deck-participations where it was included. That is consistent with a singleton in a 100-card deck. Of the 62 instances that reached a player's hand, 54 were played before the game ended, giving a draw-to-play rate of 77%.

What turn does Smoldering Marsh typically enter the battlefield?

The median first-cast turn is 4, with the middle 50% of observations falling between turns 3 and 7. The distribution has a notable cluster on turn 1: 11 of 54 recorded casts happened on turn 1, which represents opening-hand copies played immediately. The mean of 4.87 is pulled upward by a long tail stretching to turn 12, reflecting copies drawn late into the game.

Does playing Smoldering Marsh actually improve your win rate?

The current data shows a 1.5 percentage point difference between games where it was cast (38.9% win rate across 54 observations) and games where it sat in the library all game (37.4% win rate across 174 observations). The sample sizes are reasonable, but the delta is small. The early signal is that Smoldering Marsh functions as a reliable mana source rather than a card that independently moves the win-rate needle. That is expected behavior for a dual land.

Which commanders run Smoldering Marsh most often?

Asmoranomardicadaistinaculdacar leads the top-commanders list with 13 decks, followed by Hearthhull, the Worldseed (11 decks) and Auntie Ool, Cursewretch (10 decks). The spread across {B}{R}, {B}{R}{G}, {B}{R}{U}, and even five-color commanders shows that any deck touching both Black and Red considers it.

Is Smoldering Marsh legal in Commander?

Yes. Smoldering Marsh is legal in Commander, as well as Legacy, Modern, Pioneer, Vintage, Historic, Timeless, and several other formats. It is not legal in Standard, Pauper, or Pauper Commander. Its {B}{R} color identity means it can only be slotted into Commander decks whose commander shares those colors.

Why does Smoldering Marsh enter tapped and when does it not?

Smoldering Marsh is a Tango Land, a cycle from Battle for Zendikar block. It enters the battlefield tapped unless you control two or more basic lands at the time it resolves. In Commander, where players typically run 30-38 lands and many of those are basics, the untapped condition is reasonably achievable by turns 2-3 of most games. The median cast turn of 4 in our data suggests most players are landing it after the two-basic threshold is already met.