Live Play Data

Smoldering Marsh

Land — Swamp Mountain · Marvel Super Heroes Commander (MSC)

42%

Live Inclusion

Buy on TCGplayer

Times Brought

1491

Decks Running

805

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

76%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

42% of tracked Commander decks with black-red in their color identity run Smoldering Marsh, and 76% of drawn copies reach the battlefield before the game ends.

Smoldering Marsh sits in 42% of the 1928 Commander decks tracked on Playgroup Live, making it one of the more consistently adopted dual lands among black-red and Mardu strategies. Across 1312 multiplayer games, it has been brought to the table 1495 times.

The draw-to-play rate of 76% is healthy for a land. Lands that enter tapped create a real decision point about timing, but the data shows players move them to the battlefield at a high rate when they do reach their hand. Median first play lands on turn 4, with a mode of turn 1, confirming that copies found in opening hands go down immediately.

The concentration profile is strong: 607 distinct players have brought this card to tracked games, and the single heaviest contributor accounts for just 3% of all instances. That spread lends meaningful weight to the numbers here.

At a glance

42% of tracked Commander decks include Smoldering Marsh
28% draw rate across tracked games
76% of drawn copies reach the battlefield
T4 median first-play turn
90% battlefield stickiness once played
607 distinct players in the dataset, a well-spread sample

First-cast turn

n=313

15%

14%

13%

27%

T6-9

T10+

Median 4 P25 3 · P75 7 · max 17

Cast same turn as drawn 51%

The "good card" funnel

1495 brought · 607 players

Brought to game

1495

Ever drawn

412

Reached battlefield

313

Still on board at game end

283

76%

Of 1495 copies brought to games, 412 were drawn, 313 of those reached the battlefield, and the overwhelming majority remained there through end of game.

≥ -0.2pp

Players who cast this card win 27% of the time (n=307) , vs 22% when it never left the library (n=964).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 21% (n=96) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +4.8pp; 95% confidence interval -0.2pp to +9.8pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

458 instances

2.8%

Library

61.8%

Battlefield

15.3%

Graveyard

5.5%

Exile

Most Smoldering Marsh copies end the game on the battlefield, a natural result for a land that sticks once played. The library bucket is small relative to other singletons because lands tend to be played as soon as they are found.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Doctor Doom, King of Latveria 48 decks
2 Auntie Ool, Cursewretch 35 decks
3 Valgavoth, Harrower of Souls 35 decks
4 Hearthhull, the Worldseed 32 decks
5 Leonardo, the Balance 24 decks
6 Sauron, Lord of the Rings 22 decks
7 Terra, Herald of Hope 22 decks
8 Sauron, the Dark Lord 20 decks
9 Mr. House, President and CEO 19 decks
10 Caesar, Legion's Emperor 15 decks

Doctor Doom, King of Latveria leads the commander distribution, followed by a spread of Jund, Grixis, and Mardu commanders. The range of three-color identities confirms Smoldering Marsh earns its slot across the full breadth of black-red shells, not just one archetype.

Frequently Asked

How often is Smoldering Marsh drawn in a Commander game?

In 1312 tracked multiplayer games where Smoldering Marsh was in the deck, it was drawn 28% of the time. That is normal for a singleton in a 100-card deck. Of 412 copies that reached a player's hand, 76% were played before the game concluded.

What turn does Smoldering Marsh usually hit the battlefield?

Median first-play turn is 4, with the mode falling on turn 1. The distribution is spread across the early game: copies found in opening hands go down on turn 1, while later draws cluster around turns 3 through 5. The 90th percentile stretches to turn 9, reflecting copies found deep into longer games.

Does playing Smoldering Marsh correlate with winning?

Win rate when the card reaches the battlefield is 27%, compared to 22% in games where it stayed in the library the whole time. The difference is a directional positive signal, but both sample sizes point toward a modest, not dramatic, effect. Read it as consistent with the card pulling its weight, not as proof it wins games on its own.

Is Smoldering Marsh legal in Commander?

Yes. Smoldering Marsh is legal in Commander and in most other major constructed formats, including Legacy, Modern, Pioneer, Vintage, Historic, and Timeless. It is not legal in Standard, Pauper, or Pauper Commander. The card has no Commander ban.

Why does Smoldering Marsh show up in three-color decks if it only produces black and red mana?

Smoldering Marsh is a dual land with the Swamp and Mountain subtypes, so it counts as both for the purposes of cards that care about basic land types, such as fetchlands. Three-color commanders in Grixis (blue-black-red), Jund (black-red-green), and Mardu (black-red-white) all contain black and red in their identity, which is why they appear at the top of the commander distribution.

How concentrated is the Smoldering Marsh data across players?

The dataset is well-spread. 607 distinct players have brought Smoldering Marsh to at least one tracked game, and the single most frequent contributor accounts for just 3% of all instances. That breadth makes the play patterns here a stronger cross-table signal than data dominated by a small group of regulars.