Smoldering Marsh
Smoldering Marsh sits in 40% of tracked Commander decks and, when drawn, reaches the battlefield 75% of the time, with a median first-play turn of 4.0.
Smoldering Marsh is one of Commander's go-to dual lands for black-red strategies. It appears in 320 of 791 tracked decks on Playgroup Live, an inclusion rate of 40%. The card's dual typing as a Swamp Mountain means it is fetchable and synergizes with basic-land-matters effects, which helps explain its consistent presence.
When Smoldering Marsh reaches a hand, it is played 75% of the time before the game ends. Lands have a structural advantage here: they cost no mana to deploy, so a drawn copy almost never sits idle by player choice. The median first-play turn is 4.0, and the enter-tapped condition is rarely punishing at that stage of the game. Once on the battlefield, it stays there 92% of the time, consistent with a mana base piece that opponents seldom target.
The commander distribution is notably broad. 252 distinct players have brought this card to a tracked game, and the single heaviest contributor accounts for just 7% of all instances. That spread gives the data meaningful diversity across archetypes and play styles.
- 40% of tracked Commander decks include Smoldering Marsh
- 75% of drawn copies reach the battlefield before the game ends
- T4.0 median first-play turn
- 92% battlefield stickiness once played
- 252 distinct players have brought this card to a tracked game
- 29% draw rate per game, typical for a singleton in a 100-card deck
First-cast turn
n=118The "good card" funnel
550 brought · 252 playersOf 550 copies brought to games, 157 were drawn, 118 of those were played, and the vast majority remained on the battlefield through end of game.
Players who cast this card win 29% of the time (n=118) , vs 22% when it never left the library (n=358).
When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 19% (n=38) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.
95% confidence interval -2.0pp to +14.8pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.
Final zone distribution
173 instancesMost observed copies of Smoldering Marsh finish games on the battlefield, a normal result for a mana base piece that resolves early and is rarely targeted by opponents.
Commanders that played this card
in tracked games-
1
Hearthhull, the Worldseed
14 decks
-
2
Valgavoth, Harrower of Souls
13 decks
-
3
Auntie Ool, Cursewretch
11 decks
-
4
Leonardo, the Balance
10 decks
-
5
Terra, Herald of Hope
9 decks
-
6
Strefan, Maurer Progenitor
8 decks
-
7
Admiral Brass, Unsinkable
7 decks
-
8
Caesar, Legion's Emperor
7 decks
-
9
Sauron, Lord of the Rings
7 decks
-
10
Zurgo Stormrender
7 decks
The top commanders span Jund, Mardu, Grixis, and five-color strategies, showing that Smoldering Marsh earns its slot anywhere black-red mana is in demand rather than clustering in one archetype.
How often is Smoldering Marsh drawn in a Commander game? ▾
Across 480 tracked games where Smoldering Marsh was in the deck, it was drawn 29% of the time. That is expected for a singleton in a 100-card deck. Of 157 drawn copies, 75% were played before the game ended. Because lands cost no mana to deploy, that figure is high relative to most spells.
What turn does Smoldering Marsh usually hit the battlefield? ▾
The median first-play turn is 4.0, with the 25th percentile at turn 3 and the 75th at turn 7. There is a cluster of early plays in turns 1-2 from opening-hand keeps, and a long tail extending into the mid-to-late game for copies drawn off the top. The enter-tapped condition carries less cost the later in the game it resolves.
Is Smoldering Marsh legal in Commander? ▾
Yes. Smoldering Marsh is legal in Commander, as well as in Legacy, Modern, Pioneer, Vintage, Historic, Timeless, and several other formats. It is not legal in Standard, Pauper, or Pauper Commander. Pre-EDH (PreDH) also does not include it.
How does Smoldering Marsh compare to a basic land in this dataset? ▾
Win rate when cast is 29%, compared to 22% for games where the card was never interacted with. That gap of +6.4 percentage points is a directional signal, but the confidence interval crosses zero on this sample size, so treat it as early data rather than a settled conclusion. The sturdier takeaway is that decks choosing to run Smoldering Marsh are winning at a rate consistent with healthy black-red builds.
Which commanders most often run Smoldering Marsh? ▾
In the multiplayer dataset, Hearthhull, the Worldseed leads with 14 decks, followed by Valgavoth, Harrower of Souls at 12 and Auntie Ool, Cursewretch at 10. The spread across Jund, Mardu, Grixis, and five-color commanders confirms that Smoldering Marsh fills a role wherever black-red mana is needed, rather than belonging to any single archetype.
Does the data come from a wide range of players? ▾
Yes. 252 distinct players have contributed instances of Smoldering Marsh to the dataset, and the single heaviest contributor accounts for just 7% of all instances. That is well below the threshold where one player's habits would skew the numbers, lending the statistics reasonable diversity across play styles and local metas.