Live Play Data

Smoldering Marsh

Land — Swamp Mountain · Marvel Super Heroes Commander (MSC)

41%

Live Inclusion

Buy on TCGplayer

Times Brought

2613

Decks Running

1384

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

78%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

41% of tracked Commander decks with black-red in their color identity run Smoldering Marsh, and 78% of drawn copies reach the battlefield before the game ends.

Smoldering Marsh sits in 41% of the 3391 Commander decks tracked on Playgroup Live, making it one of the more consistently adopted dual lands among black-red and Mardu strategies. Across 2277 multiplayer games, it has been brought to the table 2617 times.

The draw-to-play rate of 78% is healthy for a land. Lands that enter tapped create a real decision point about timing, but the data shows players move them to the battlefield at a high rate when they do reach their hand. Median first play lands on turn 4, with a mode of turn 1, confirming that copies found in opening hands go down immediately.

The concentration profile is strong: 1018 distinct players have brought this card to tracked games, and the single heaviest contributor accounts for just 2% of all instances. That spread lends meaningful weight to the numbers here.

At a glance

41% of tracked Commander decks include Smoldering Marsh
26% draw rate across tracked games
78% of drawn copies reach the battlefield
T4 median first-play turn
91% battlefield stickiness once played
1018 distinct players in the dataset, a well-spread sample

First-cast turn

n=537

16%

10%

14%

11%

26%

T6-9

T10+

Median 4 P25 2 · P75 7 · max 18

Cast same turn as drawn 51%

The "good card" funnel

2617 brought · 1018 players

Brought to game

2617

Ever drawn

689

Reached battlefield

537

Still on board at game end

488

78%

Of 2617 copies brought to games, 689 were drawn, 537 of those reached the battlefield, and the overwhelming majority remained there through end of game.

≥ -1.4pp

Players who cast this card win 24% of the time (n=508) , vs 22% when it never left the library (n=1628).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 20% (n=138) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +2.4pp; 95% confidence interval -1.4pp to +6.2pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

769 instances

2.6%

Library

63.5%

Battlefield

15.9%

Graveyard

4.2%

Exile

Most Smoldering Marsh copies end the game on the battlefield, a natural result for a land that sticks once played. The library bucket is small relative to other singletons because lands tend to be played as soon as they are found.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Doctor Doom, King of Latveria 102 decks
2 Valgavoth, Harrower of Souls 65 decks
3 Hearthhull, the Worldseed 52 decks
4 Auntie Ool, Cursewretch 47 decks
5 Leonardo, the Balance 42 decks
6 Sauron, Lord of the Rings 39 decks
7 Terra, Herald of Hope 39 decks
8 Sauron, the Dark Lord 32 decks
9 Caesar, Legion's Emperor 31 decks
10 Mr. House, President and CEO 29 decks

Doctor Doom, King of Latveria leads the commander distribution, followed by a spread of Jund, Grixis, and Mardu commanders. The range of three-color identities confirms Smoldering Marsh earns its slot across the full breadth of black-red shells, not just one archetype.

Frequently Asked

How often is Smoldering Marsh drawn in a Commander game?

In 2277 tracked multiplayer games where Smoldering Marsh was in the deck, it was drawn 26% of the time. That is normal for a singleton in a 100-card deck. Of 689 copies that reached a player's hand, 78% were played before the game concluded.

What turn does Smoldering Marsh usually hit the battlefield?

Median first-play turn is 4, with the mode falling on turn 1. The distribution is spread across the early game: copies found in opening hands go down on turn 1, while later draws cluster around turns 3 through 5. The 90th percentile stretches to turn 9, reflecting copies found deep into longer games.

Does playing Smoldering Marsh correlate with winning?

Win rate when the card reaches the battlefield is 24%, compared to 22% in games where it stayed in the library the whole time. The difference is a directional positive signal, but both sample sizes point toward a modest, not dramatic, effect. Read it as consistent with the card pulling its weight, not as proof it wins games on its own.

Is Smoldering Marsh legal in Commander?

Yes. Smoldering Marsh is legal in Commander and in most other major constructed formats, including Legacy, Modern, Pioneer, Vintage, Historic, and Timeless. It is not legal in Standard, Pauper, or Pauper Commander. The card has no Commander ban.

Why does Smoldering Marsh show up in three-color decks if it only produces black and red mana?

Smoldering Marsh is a dual land with the Swamp and Mountain subtypes, so it counts as both for the purposes of cards that care about basic land types, such as fetchlands. Three-color commanders in Grixis (blue-black-red), Jund (black-red-green), and Mardu (black-red-white) all contain black and red in their identity, which is why they appear at the top of the commander distribution.

How concentrated is the Smoldering Marsh data across players?

The dataset is well-spread. 1018 distinct players have brought Smoldering Marsh to at least one tracked game, and the single most frequent contributor accounts for just 2% of all instances. That breadth makes the play patterns here a stronger cross-table signal than data dominated by a small group of regulars.