Live Play Data

Sphinx of False Conclusions

· Creature — Sphinx Illusion · Reality Fracture (FRA)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

106

Decks Running

Median Cast Turn

—

Drawn → Played

68%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=17

Not enough observed casts yet to show a reliable distribution.

The "good card" funnel

107 brought · 48 players

Brought to game

107

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

≥ -29.8pp

Players who cast this card win 23% of the time (n=16) , vs 30% when it never left the library (n=70).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap -6.6pp; 95% confidence interval -29.8pp to +16.7pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

31 instances

6.5%

Library

45.2%

Battlefield

29.0%

Graveyard

3.2%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 The Ur-Sphinx 45 decks
2 Fblthp, Impossibly Lost 1 decks
3 Marneus Calgar 1 decks
4 The Mindskinner 1 decks
5 Whtz, the Bibliophile 1 decks

Card text

Sphinx of False Conclusions

Creature — Sphinx Illusion

Flash Flying Whenever this creature attacks, draw a card, then discard a card. When this creature dies, if it isn't a token, create a token that's a copy of it.

4 / 2

Reality Fracture (FRA) · Rare · Illustrated by Wylie Beckert

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 710,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.