Live Play Data

Take the Bait

· Instant · Murders at Karlov Manor Commander (MKC)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

514

Decks Running

269

Median Cast Turn

9.0

Drawn → Played

38%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=48

54%

T6-9

38%

T10+

Median 9.0 P25 7 · P75 11 · max 18

On curve 4% (1 / 48 cast on T4) Cast same turn as drawn 14%

The "good card" funnel

514 brought · 267 players

Brought to game

514

Ever drawn

125

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

≥ -13.8pp

Players who cast this card win 21% of the time (n=46) , vs 23% when it never left the library (n=354).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 22% (n=71).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap -1.4pp; 95% confidence interval -13.8pp to +11.0pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

137 instances

1.5%

Library

7.3%

Battlefield

37.2%

Graveyard

4.4%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Queen Marchesa 66 decks
2 Nelly Borca, Impulsive Accuser 43 decks
3 Marisi, Breaker of the Coil 13 decks
4 General Ferrous Rokiric 12 decks
5 Pramikon, Sky Rampart 11 decks
6 Iroh, Tea Master 10 decks
7 Karona, False God 8 decks
8 Kynaios and Tiro of Meletis 7 decks
9 Aragorn, King of Gondor 6 decks
10 Lightning, Army of One 6 decks

Card text

Take the Bait

Instant

Cast this spell only during combat on an opponent's turn. Prevent all combat damage that would be dealt to you and planeswalkers you control this turn. Untap all attacking creatures and goad them. After this phase, there is an additional combat phase.

Murders at Karlov Manor Commander (MKC) · Rare · Illustrated by Johan Grenier

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 780,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.