Live Play Data

Take the Bait

· Instant · Murders at Karlov Manor Commander (MKC)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

355

Decks Running

191

Median Cast Turn

8.0

Drawn → Played

33%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=28

50%

T6-9

36%

T10+

Median 8.0 P25 6 · P75 11 · max 17

On curve 11% (2 / 28 cast on T4) Cast same turn as drawn 19%

The "good card" funnel

355 brought · 191 players

Brought to game

355

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

≥ -17.8pp

Players who cast this card win 25% of the time (n=25) , vs 25% when it never left the library (n=232).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 22% (n=50).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +0.5pp; 95% confidence interval -17.8pp to +18.8pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

95 instances

2.1%

Library

4.2%

Battlefield

35.8%

Graveyard

5.3%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Queen Marchesa 52 decks
2 Nelly Borca, Impulsive Accuser 27 decks
3 Iroh, Tea Master 9 decks
4 Pramikon, Sky Rampart 9 decks
5 General Ferrous Rokiric 8 decks
6 Karona, False God 6 decks
7 Marisi, Breaker of the Coil 6 decks
8 Lightning, Army of One 5 decks
9 Aragorn, King of Gondor 4 decks
10 Kynaios and Tiro of Meletis 4 decks

Card text

Take the Bait

Instant

Cast this spell only during combat on an opponent's turn. Prevent all combat damage that would be dealt to you and planeswalkers you control this turn. Untap all attacking creatures and goad them. After this phase, there is an additional combat phase.

Murders at Karlov Manor Commander (MKC) · Rare · Illustrated by Johan Grenier

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 730,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.