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The Balrog of Moria card art
Live Play Data

The Balrog of Moria

{4} {B} {B} {R} · Legendary Creature — Avatar Demon · Tales of Middle-earth Commander (LTC)
3%
Live Inclusion
Times Brought
241
Decks Running
116
Median Cast Turn
8.0
Drawn → Played
65%
Format

First-cast turn

n=40
0%
T1
0%
T2
3%
T3
0%
T4
5%
T5
68%
T6-9
25%
T10+
Median 8.0 P25 7 · P75 10 · max 20
On curve 45% (11 / 40 cast on T7) Cast same turn as drawn 26%

The "good card" funnel

242 brought · 99 players
Brought to game
242
Ever drawn
62
Reached battlefield
40
Still on board at game end
17

Once cast, 43% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ -6.8pp

Players who cast this card win 28% of the time (n=39) , vs 21% when it never left the library (n=148).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 13% (n=18).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +7.4pp; 95% confidence interval -6.8pp to +21.6pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

70 instances
24.3%
Battlefield
31.4%
Graveyard
22.9%
Exile
21.4%
Hand
Card text
The Balrog of Moria card

The Balrog of Moria

{4} {B} {B} {R}
Legendary Creature — Avatar Demon
Trample, haste When The Balrog of Moria dies, you may exile it. When you do, for each opponent, exile up to one target creature that player controls. Cycling {3}{R} ({3}{R}, Discard this card: Draw a card.) When you cycle this card, create two Treasure tokens.
8 / 8
Tales of Middle-earth Commander (LTC) · Rare · Illustrated by Rudy Siswanto

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?
Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.
How is Playgroup Live card data collected?
Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 680,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.