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Unexpected Windfall

· Instant · Adventures in the Forgotten Realms (AFR)

Decklist Inclusion

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Times Brought

528

Decks Running

291

In Decks

2289

Decklist Inclusion

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

Final zone distribution

152 instances

4.6%

Library

1.3%

Battlefield

65.1%

Graveyard

9.2%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Fire Lord Azula 14 decks
2 Lorehold, the Historian 11 decks
3 Doctor Doom, King of Latveria 7 decks
4 Kuja, Genome Sorcerer // Trance Kuja, Fate Defied 7 decks
5 Ovika, Enigma Goliath 6 decks
6 Ragost, Deft Gastronaut 6 decks
7 The Emperor of Palamecia // The Lord Master of Hell 6 decks
8 Aziza, Mage Tower Captain 5 decks
9 Dr. Madison Li 5 decks
10 Norman Osborn // Green Goblin 5 decks

The "good card" funnel

528 brought · 233 players

Brought to game

528

Ever drawn

135

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

≥ -2.4pp

Players who cast this card win 36% of the time (n=91) , vs 28% when it never left the library (n=360).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 22% (n=41) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +7.4pp; 95% confidence interval -2.4pp to +17.2pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

First-cast turn

n=91

13%

18%

55%

T6-9

T10+

Median 6 P25 5 · P75 8 · max 12

On curve 21% (12 / 91 cast on T4) Cast same turn as drawn 45%

91 of 100 times cast 91%

Full analysis unlocks as more games are tracked. Stats refresh nightly.

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Basic play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games; the full deep-dive page needs a larger, more diverse sample (at least 300 tracked games played by 10 or more different pilots, with no single pilot over 40 percent of the copies). Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting.