Live Play Data

Unexpected Windfall

· Instant · Adventures in the Forgotten Realms (AFR)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

5026

Decks Running

2337

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

66%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=781

17%

52%

T6-9

10%

T10+

Median 6 P25 5 · P75 8 · max 17

On curve 22% (132 / 781 cast on T4) Cast same turn as drawn 35%

The "good card" funnel

5026 brought · 1776 players

Brought to game

5026

Ever drawn

1182

Reached battlefield

781

Still on board at game end

≥ +2.9pp

Players who cast this card win 31% of the time (n=702) , vs 25% when it never left the library (n=3282).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 24% (n=356).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +6.4pp; 95% confidence interval +2.9pp to +9.9pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

1306 instances

2.8%

Library

2.4%

Battlefield

62.1%

Graveyard

10.7%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Lathliss, Dragon Queen 193 decks
2 Fire Lord Azula 108 decks
3 Smaug the Impenetrable 67 decks
4 Sonic the Hedgehog 61 decks
5 Smaug the Magnificent 58 decks
6 Jaws, Relentless Predator 45 decks
7 Kuja, Genome Sorcerer // Trance Kuja, Fate Defied 45 decks
8 Lorehold, the Historian 45 decks
9 Knuckles the Echidna 39 decks
10 Kratos, God of War 38 decks

Card text

Unexpected Windfall

Instant

As an additional cost to cast this spell, discard a card. Draw two cards and create two Treasure tokens. (They're artifacts with " {T}

, Sacrifice this token: Add one mana of any color.")

Adventures in the Forgotten Realms (AFR) · Common · Illustrated by Alayna Danner

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 760,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.