Live Play Data

Unexpected Windfall

· Instant · Adventures in the Forgotten Realms (AFR)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

2528

Decks Running

1247

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

67%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=415

16%

18%

52%

T6-9

T10+

Median 6 P25 5 · P75 7 · max 17

On curve 24% (68 / 415 cast on T4) Cast same turn as drawn 37%

The "good card" funnel

2528 brought · 973 players

Brought to game

2528

Ever drawn

619

Reached battlefield

415

Still on board at game end

≥ +2.6pp

Players who cast this card win 32% of the time (n=380) , vs 25% when it never left the library (n=1635).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 23% (n=181).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +7.4pp; 95% confidence interval +2.6pp to +12.2pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

687 instances

2.8%

Library

1.6%

Battlefield

62.7%

Graveyard

11.2%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Fire Lord Azula 69 decks
2 Smaug the Impenetrable 47 decks
3 Sonic the Hedgehog 32 decks
4 Smaug the Magnificent 31 decks
5 Jaws, Relentless Predator 29 decks
6 Kuja, Genome Sorcerer // Trance Kuja, Fate Defied 26 decks
7 Kratos, God of War 25 decks
8 Lorehold, the Historian 25 decks
9 Doctor Doom, King of Latveria 24 decks
10 Ragost, Deft Gastronaut 24 decks

Card text

Unexpected Windfall

Instant

As an additional cost to cast this spell, discard a card. Draw two cards and create two Treasure tokens. (They're artifacts with " {T}

, Sacrifice this token: Add one mana of any color.")

Adventures in the Forgotten Realms (AFR) · Common · Illustrated by Alayna Danner

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 690,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.