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Unexpected Windfall

· Instant · Adventures in the Forgotten Realms (AFR)

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Times Brought

1357

Decks Running

715

In Decks

—

Decklist Inclusion

—

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

Showing 1v1 (duel) data only. 1v1 is a different format from multiplayer Commander, so these numbers are not comparable.

Card text

Unexpected Windfall

Instant

As an additional cost to cast this spell, discard a card. Draw two cards and create two Treasure tokens. (They're artifacts with " {T}

, Sacrifice this token: Add one mana of any color.")

Adventures in the Forgotten Realms (AFR) · Common · Illustrated by Alayna Danner

Final zone distribution

296 instances

3.4%

Library

2.7%

Battlefield

61.8%

Graveyard

8.8%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

The "good card" funnel

1357 brought · 594 players

Brought to game

1357

Ever drawn

273

Reached battlefield

179

Still on board at game end

≥ -0.2pp

Players who cast this card win 30% of the time (n=146) , vs 26% when it never left the library (n=792).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 27% (n=75).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +4.1pp; 95% confidence interval -0.2pp to +8.4pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

First-cast turn

n=179

17%

45%

T6-9

T10+

Median 6 P25 4 · P75 7 · max 19

On curve 30% (30 / 179 cast on T4) Cast same turn as drawn 33%

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 690,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.