Live Play Data
Unsettled Mariner
·
Creature — Shapeshifter
·
Modern Horizons (MH1)
2%
Live Inclusion
Times Brought
522
Decks Running
225
Median Cast Turn
6
Drawn → Played
71%
Format
First-cast turn
n=93
6%
T1
9%
T2
11%
T3
11%
T4
12%
T5
42%
T6-9
10%
T10+
Median
6
P25
3
· P75
7
· max
12
On curve
15%
(8 / 93 cast on T2)
Cast same turn as drawn
47%
The "good card" funnel
522 brought · 232 playersBrought to game
522
Ever drawn
131
Reached battlefield
93
Still on board at game end
45
Once cast, 48% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.
≥ -0.4pp
Players who cast this card win 28% of the time (n=84) , vs 18% when it never left the library (n=326).
When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 21% (n=35).
Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.
Observed gap +9.2pp; 95% confidence interval -0.4pp to +18.7pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.
Final zone distribution
145 instances1.4%
Library
31.0%
Battlefield
37.9%
Graveyard
10.3%
Exile
Commanders that played this card
in tracked games-
1
The Ur-Dragon
23 decks
-
2
Grand Arbiter Augustin IV
20 decks
-
3
Kratos, Stoic Father
19 decks
-
4
Morophon, the Boundless
19 decks
-
5
Reaper King
19 decks
-
6
Sidar Jabari of Zhalfir
16 decks
-
7
Urtet, Remnant of Memnarch
15 decks
-
8
The Ur-Sphinx
14 decks
-
9
The Destined Warrior
13 decks
-
10
Katara, the Fearless
6 decks
Card text
Unsettled Mariner
Creature — Shapeshifter
Changeling (This card is every creature type.)
Whenever you or a permanent you control becomes the target of a spell or ability an opponent controls, counter that spell or ability unless its controller pays 
.
.2 / 2
Modern Horizons (MH1)
·
Rare
·
Illustrated by John Stanko
Frequently Asked
Why isn't there more data on this card?
Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.
How is Playgroup Live card data collected?
Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 760,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.