Live Play Data

Unsettled Mariner

· Creature — Shapeshifter · Modern Horizons (MH1)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

301

Decks Running

137

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

71%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=51

12%

14%

10%

41%

T6-9

T10+

Median 5 P25 3 · P75 7 · max 11

On curve 20% (6 / 51 cast on T2) Cast same turn as drawn 39%

The "good card" funnel

301 brought · 147 players

Brought to game

301

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

Once cast, 45% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ +3.9pp

Players who cast this card win 33% of the time (n=48) , vs 17% when it never left the library (n=184).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 13% (n=20).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +16.6pp; 95% confidence interval +3.9pp to +29.3pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

81 instances

2.5%

Library

28.4%

Battlefield

45.7%

Graveyard

6.2%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 The Ur-Dragon 18 decks
2 Kratos, Stoic Father 15 decks
3 Grand Arbiter Augustin IV 14 decks
4 Reaper King 13 decks
5 Sidar Jabari of Zhalfir 13 decks
6 Morophon, the Boundless 9 decks
7 Urtet, Remnant of Memnarch 9 decks
8 The Destined Warrior 8 decks
9 The First Sliver 5 decks
10 Atogatog 4 decks

Card text

Unsettled Mariner

Creature — Shapeshifter

Changeling (This card is every creature type.) Whenever you or a permanent you control becomes the target of a spell or ability an opponent controls, counter that spell or ability unless its controller pays {1}

2 / 2

Modern Horizons (MH1) · Rare · Illustrated by John Stanko

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 690,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.