Live Play Data

Variable Chaser // Arc of Fortune

· Creature — Human Wizard // Sorcery · Reality Fracture (FRA)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

195

Decks Running

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

47%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=27

19%

15%

41%

T6-9

11%

T10+

Median 6 P25 3 · P75 7 · max 15

On curve 26% (5 / 27 cast on T3) Cast same turn as drawn 15%

The "good card" funnel

195 brought · 75 players

Brought to game

195

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

Once cast, 44% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ -7.7pp

Players who cast this card win 21% of the time (n=27) , vs 13% when it never left the library (n=122).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 18% (n=30).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +8.8pp; 95% confidence interval -7.7pp to +25.3pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

68 instances

2.9%

Library

17.6%

Battlefield

39.7%

Graveyard

7.4%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Codie, Ravenous Codex 44 decks
2 Narset, Jeskai Waymaster 4 decks
3 Kellan, the Kid 3 decks
4 Samut, Tyrant of Naktamun 3 decks
5 Fblthp, Impossibly Lost 2 decks
6 Jin-Gitaxias // The Great Synthesis 2 decks
7 Uldaros Theorix 2 decks
8 Baral, Chief of Compliance 1 decks
9 Brallin, Skyshark Rider 1 decks
10 Bria, Riptide Rogue 1 decks

Card text

Variable Chaser

Creature — Human Wizard

Flying, prowess This creature enters prepared. (While it's prepared, you may cast a copy of its spell. Doing so unprepares it.)

2 / 3

Arc of Fortune

Sorcery

Each player may discard their hand and draw seven cards.

Reality Fracture (FRA) · Rare · Illustrated by Kai Carpenter

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 780,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.