Live Play Data

Winter Moon

· Artifact · Modern Horizons 3 (MH3)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

453

Decks Running

188

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

67%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=69

19%

14%

35%

T6-9

12%

T10+

Median 5 P25 2 · P75 8 · max 19

On curve 26% (13 / 69 cast on T2) Cast same turn as drawn 51%

The "good card" funnel

453 brought · 171 players

Brought to game

453

Ever drawn

103

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

Once cast, 61% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.

≥ -9.5pp

Players who cast this card win 24% of the time (n=61) , vs 23% when it never left the library (n=300).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 37% (n=30).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +1.5pp; 95% confidence interval -9.5pp to +12.5pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

117 instances

5.1%

Library

35.9%

Battlefield

30.8%

Graveyard

6.0%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Grand Arbiter Augustin IV 11 decks
2 Alexios, Deimos of Kosmos 5 decks
3 Krenko, Mob Boss 5 decks
4 Tinybones, Bauble Burglar 5 decks
5 Urza, Lord High Artificer 4 decks
6 Daretti, Scrap Savant 3 decks
7 Eluge, the Shoreless Sea 3 decks
8 K'rrik, Son of Yawgmoth 3 decks
9 Ojer Axonil, Deepest Might // Temple of Power 3 decks
10 Sephiroth, Fabled SOLDIER // Sephiroth, One-Winged Angel 3 decks

Card text

Winter Moon

Artifact

Players can't untap more than one nonbasic land during their untap steps.

Modern Horizons 3 (MH3) · Rare · Illustrated by Drew Baker

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 760,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.