Live Play Data

Arbor Elf

· Creature — Elf Druid · Masters 25 (A25)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

627

Decks Running

326

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

75%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

Arbor Elf appears in 4% of tracked Commander decks on Playgroup Live, and 75% of drawn copies reach the battlefield, with a median first-cast turn of 3.

Arbor Elf is a focused mana-accelerant, found in 326 of the 8517 distinct decks that have played a tracked game on Playgroup Live. Its 4% inclusion rate reflects its narrow requirements: it needs a Forest on the battlefield to do anything, which limits it largely to mono-green and heavy-green strategies.

When it does reach a hand, 75% of those copies get cast before the game ends. Median first cast lands on turn 3, consistent with a one-mana creature that players deploy as early as possible. Of 125 total casts tracked, 30 landed on turn 1, making turn 1 the single most common cast turn. The data so far is directional: 292 distinct players have brought Arbor Elf to a tracked game, and no single player accounts for more than a small fraction of observations, which is an early signal that the numbers reflect genuine community usage rather than one player's run.

Arbor Elf pairs best with commanders that reward untapping Forests repeatedly, including synergies with cards like Utopia Sprawl or Fertile Ground. The top commanders in the tracked dataset lean heavily into Elf tribal and big-green strategies, exactly the shells where a one-mana Forest untapper earns its slot.

At a glance

4% of tracked Commander decks include Arbor Elf
75% of drawn copies are cast before the game ends
T3 median first-cast turn, with turn 1 as the most common
50% battlefield stickiness once cast
292 distinct players have brought Arbor Elf to a tracked game

First-cast turn

n=125

30%

10%

28%

T6-9

T10+

Median 3 P25 1 · P75 6 · max 13

On curve 30% (38 / 125 cast on T1) Cast same turn as drawn 70%

The "good card" funnel

627 brought · 292 players

Brought to game

627

Ever drawn

167

Reached battlefield

125

Still on board at game end

75%

Of 627 Arbor Elves brought to games, 167 were drawn, 125 of those were cast, and roughly half stayed on the battlefield through the end of game.

≥ -13.2pp

Players who cast this card win 22% of the time (n=113) , vs 27% when it never left the library (n=407).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 30% (n=35) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap -5.2pp; 95% confidence interval -13.2pp to +2.9pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

178 instances

2.8%

Library

34.8%

Battlefield

31.5%

Graveyard

11.2%

Exile

Most Arbor Elves finish the game on the battlefield or in the graveyard, a pattern driven by early deployment followed by frequent removal or board wipes in the mid-to-late game.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

The commander list skews heavily toward Elf tribal and mono-green stompy builds, confirming that Arbor Elf is a Forest-centric inclusion rather than a universal green staple.

Card text

Arbor Elf

Creature — Elf Druid

: Untap target Forest.

1 / 1

Masters 25 (A25) · Common · Illustrated by rk post

Frequently Asked

How often is Arbor Elf drawn in a Commander game?

Across 613 tracked games where Arbor Elf was in the deck, it was drawn 27% of the time. That is a normal draw rate for a singleton in a 100-card deck. Of those 167 instances that reached a hand, 75% were cast before the game ended.

What turn does Arbor Elf usually get cast?

Median first-cast turn is 3. Turn 1 is the single most common cast turn, accounting for 30 of 125 casts, which reflects how frequently it appears in opening hands and gets deployed immediately. The distribution has a long tail: some copies are cast as late as turn 13, typically drawn mid-game in slower pods.

Is Arbor Elf legal in Commander?

Yes. Arbor Elf is legal in Commander and has no restrictions. It is also legal in Legacy, Modern, Pauper, Vintage, Duel Commander, Oathbreaker, and Pauper Commander. It is not legal in Standard, Pioneer, Alchemy, Historic, or Brawl.

Why does Arbor Elf see play mostly in green-heavy or mono-green decks?

Arbor Elf's ability targets Forests specifically. In a three- or four-color deck, basic Forests are scarce, so the elf often has nothing to untap. Mono-green and heavy-green builds run more Forests, and enchanted-Forest strategies (Utopia Sprawl, Fertile Ground) turn each Arbor Elf activation into a significant mana surge. The top commanders in the tracked dataset confirm this: Ghalta, Lathril, and Galadriel builds dominate the list.

How sticky is Arbor Elf once it hits the battlefield?

Battlefield stickiness sits at 50% in the tracked data. That is lower than many utility creatures, reflecting the reality that a 1/1 Elf is a common removal target and a frequent casualty of board wipes. Players should expect it to die, not survive. Its value is the mana it generates early, not long-term board presence.

Does casting Arbor Elf improve your win rate?

The tracked data shows 22% win rate in games where Arbor Elf was cast, versus 27% in games where it stayed in the library. The sample sizes are 113 and 407 respectively. With those counts, treat the difference as directional rather than conclusive. The signal is consistent with Arbor Elf being a role-player rather than a game-deciding card on its own.