Live Play Data

Arcane Heist

· Sorcery · Outlaws of Thunder Junction Commander (OTC)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

332

Decks Running

173

Median Cast Turn

Drawn → Played

51%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=39

10%

69%

T6-9

10%

T10+

Median 7 P25 6 · P75 8 · max 13

On curve 10% (4 / 39 cast on T4) Cast same turn as drawn 34%

The "good card" funnel

336 brought · 166 players

Brought to game

336

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

≥ -2.5pp

Players who cast this card win 32% of the time (n=34) , vs 18% when it never left the library (n=214).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 24% (n=36).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +13.2pp; 95% confidence interval -2.5pp to +28.9pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

90 instances

4.4%

Library

15.6%

Battlefield

32.2%

Graveyard

8.9%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

Card text

Arcane Heist

Sorcery

You may cast target instant or sorcery card from an opponent's graveyard without paying its mana cost. If that spell would be put into their graveyard, exile it instead. Cipher (Then you may exile this spell card encoded on a creature you control. Whenever that creature deals combat damage to a player, its controller may cast a copy of the encoded card without paying its mana cost.)

Outlaws of Thunder Junction Commander (OTC) · Rare · Illustrated by Anna Pavleeva

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 760,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.