Astral Dragon
Showing 1v1 (duel) data only. 1v1 is a different format from multiplayer Commander, so these numbers are not comparable.
Astral Dragon
Final zone distribution
118 instancesCommanders that played this card
in tracked games-
1
Miirym, Sentinel Wyrm
35 decks
-
2
Jace, Multiverse Architect
19 decks
-
3
Firkraag, Cunning Instigator
12 decks
-
4
Hashaton, Scarab's Fist
10 decks
-
5
Ureni of the Unwritten
10 decks
-
6
Sivitri, Dragon Master
6 decks
-
7
The Ur-Dragon
6 decks
-
8
Whtz, the Bibliophile
6 decks
-
9
Arthur, Marigold Knight
5 decks
-
10
Marvo, Deep Operative
4 decks
The "good card" funnel
437 brought · 169 playersOnce cast, 73% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.
Players who cast this card win 33% of the time (n=47) , vs 24% when it never left the library (n=251).
When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 26% (n=34).
Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.
Observed gap +9.3pp; 95% confidence interval +1.8pp to +16.8pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.