Balefire Dragon
Showing 1v1 (duel) data only. 1v1 is a different format from multiplayer Commander, so these numbers are not comparable.
Balefire Dragon
Final zone distribution
108 instancesCommanders that played this card
in tracked games-
1
The Ur-Dragon
42 decks
-
2
Kaalia of the Vast
38 decks
-
3
Miirym, Sentinel Wyrm
16 decks
-
4
Ureni of the Unwritten
15 decks
-
5
Tannuk, Steadfast Second
10 decks
-
6
Atla Palani, Nest Tender
7 decks
-
7
Magda, Brazen Outlaw
5 decks
-
8
Raph & Mikey, Troublemakers
5 decks
-
9
Rivaz of the Claw
5 decks
-
10
Atarka, World Render
4 decks
The "good card" funnel
504 brought · 175 playersOnce cast, 68% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.
Players who cast this card win 38% of the time (n=52) , vs 29% when it never left the library (n=315).
When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 22% (n=30) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.
Observed gap +8.9pp; 95% confidence interval +2.4pp to +15.4pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.
First-cast turn
n=62Full analysis unlocks as more games are tracked. Stats refresh nightly.