Balefire Dragon
Showing 1v1 (duel) data only. 1v1 is a different format from multiplayer Commander, so these numbers are not comparable.
Balefire Dragon
Final zone distribution
227 instancesCommanders that played this card
in tracked games-
1
Kaalia of the Vast
97 decks
-
2
The Ur-Dragon
88 decks
-
3
Ureni of the Unwritten
28 decks
-
4
Miirym, Sentinel Wyrm
24 decks
-
5
Tannuk, Steadfast Second
15 decks
-
6
Atla Palani, Nest Tender
11 decks
-
7
Rivaz of the Claw
11 decks
-
8
Lathliss, Dragon Queen
9 decks
-
9
Magda, Brazen Outlaw
9 decks
-
10
Raph & Mikey, Troublemakers
9 decks
The "good card" funnel
1073 brought · 360 playersOnce cast, 68% of this card is still on the battlefield at game end. This reflects how often it survives removal, not just whether it's a permanent.
Players who cast this card win 33% of the time (n=106) , vs 30% when it never left the library (n=655).
When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 23% (n=67).
Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.
Observed gap +2.7pp; 95% confidence interval -2.2pp to +7.6pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.