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Bolt Bend

· Instant · Avatar: The Last Airbender Eternal (TLE)

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Times Brought

971

Decks Running

505

In Decks

—

Decklist Inclusion

—

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

Showing 1v1 (duel) data only. 1v1 is a different format from multiplayer Commander, so these numbers are not comparable.

Card text

Bolt Bend

Instant

This spell costs {3}

less to cast if you control a creature with power 4 or greater. Change the target of target spell or ability with a single target.

Avatar: The Last Airbender Eternal (TLE) · Uncommon · Illustrated by Yuhong Ding

Final zone distribution

178 instances

5.6%

Library

5.1%

Battlefield

29.8%

Graveyard

7.3%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Smaug the Impenetrable 26 decks
2 Valgavoth, Harrower of Souls 20 decks
3 Fire Lord Azula 18 decks
4 Raph & Mikey, Troublemakers 15 decks
5 Ob Nixilis, Captive Kingpin 11 decks
6 Smaug the Magnificent 11 decks
7 Kefka, Court Mage // Kefka, Ruler of Ruin 10 decks
8 Kratos, God of War 10 decks
9 Krenko, Mob Boss 9 decks
10 Chiss-Goria, Forge Tyrant 8 decks

The "good card" funnel

971 brought · 449 players

Brought to game

971

Ever drawn

159

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

≥ -15.4pp

Players who cast this card win 23% of the time (n=35) , vs 30% when it never left the library (n=571).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 30% (n=88).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap -6.8pp; 95% confidence interval -15.4pp to +1.8pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

First-cast turn

n=45

73%

T6-9

11%

T10+

Median 6 P25 6 · P75 8 · max 15

On curve 7% (1 / 45 cast on T4) Cast same turn as drawn 14%

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 690,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.