Live Play Data

Bolt Bend

· Instant · Avatar: The Last Airbender Eternal (TLE)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

2372

Decks Running

990

Median Cast Turn

7.0

Drawn → Played

42%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=210

12%

69%

T6-9

11%

T10+

Median 7.0 P25 6 · P75 8 · max 15

On curve 9% (15 / 210 cast on T4) Cast same turn as drawn 21%

The "good card" funnel

2375 brought · 795 players

Brought to game

2375

Ever drawn

506

Reached battlefield

210

Still on board at game end

≥ +1.9pp

Players who cast this card win 36% of the time (n=200) , vs 28% when it never left the library (n=1576).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 32% (n=269).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +8.5pp; 95% confidence interval +1.9pp to +15.1pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

579 instances

5.2%

Library

3.5%

Battlefield

39.6%

Graveyard

8.1%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Valgavoth, Harrower of Souls 48 decks
2 Smaug the Impenetrable 46 decks
3 Fire Lord Azula 38 decks
4 Raph & Mikey, Troublemakers 26 decks
5 Jaws, Relentless Predator 19 decks
6 Smaug the Magnificent 19 decks
7 Ob Nixilis, Captive Kingpin 18 decks
8 Ojer Axonil, Deepest Might // Temple of Power 18 decks
9 Thor, God of Thunder 16 decks
10 Krenko, Mob Boss 15 decks

Card text

Bolt Bend

Instant

This spell costs {3}

less to cast if you control a creature with power 4 or greater. Change the target of target spell or ability with a single target.

Avatar: The Last Airbender Eternal (TLE) · Uncommon · Illustrated by Yuhong Ding

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 690,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live subset of that corpus.