Live Play Data

Bolt Bend

· Instant · Avatar: The Last Airbender Eternal (TLE)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

3199

Decks Running

1301

Median Cast Turn

7.0

Drawn → Played

42%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=284

14%

69%

T6-9

T10+

Median 7.0 P25 6 · P75 8 · max 15

On curve 8% (19 / 284 cast on T4) Cast same turn as drawn 21%

The "good card" funnel

3202 brought · 1011 players

Brought to game

3202

Ever drawn

674

Reached battlefield

284

Still on board at game end

≥ +1.5pp

Players who cast this card win 35% of the time (n=269) , vs 28% when it never left the library (n=2130).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 31% (n=349).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap +7.2pp; 95% confidence interval +1.5pp to +12.9pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

768 instances

5.6%

Library

3.8%

Battlefield

39.3%

Graveyard

7.7%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

1 Valgavoth, Harrower of Souls 61 decks
2 Smaug the Impenetrable 55 decks
3 Fire Lord Azula 43 decks
4 Raph & Mikey, Troublemakers 33 decks
5 Smaug the Magnificent 30 decks
6 Jaws, Relentless Predator 26 decks
7 Ojer Axonil, Deepest Might // Temple of Power 24 decks
8 Ob Nixilis, Captive Kingpin 21 decks
9 Lorehold, the Historian 20 decks
10 Krenko, Mob Boss 19 decks

Card text

Bolt Bend

Instant

This spell costs {3}

less to cast if you control a creature with power 4 or greater. Change the target of target spell or ability with a single target.

Avatar: The Last Airbender Eternal (TLE) · Uncommon · Illustrated by Yuhong Ding

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 720,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.