Live Play Data

Boltbender

· Creature — Goblin Wizard · Murders at Karlov Manor Commander (MKC)

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

107

Decks Running

Median Cast Turn

—

Drawn → Played

69%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

First-cast turn

n=18

Not enough observed casts yet to show a reliable distribution.

The "good card" funnel

110 brought · 40 players

Brought to game

110

Ever drawn

Reached battlefield

Still on board at game end

≥ -30.9pp

Players who cast this card win 6% of the time (n=17) , vs 22% when it never left the library (n=71).

Read this as correlation, not as the card's contribution. Casting a card means you lived long enough to cast it, so this gap widens with mana value across every card we track.

Observed gap -16.1pp; 95% confidence interval -30.9pp to -1.3pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

27 instances

7.4%

Library

37.0%

Battlefield

29.6%

Graveyard

7.4%

Exile

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

Card text

Boltbender

Creature — Goblin Wizard

Disguise

(You may cast this card face down for {3}

as a 2/2 creature with ward {2}

. Turn it face up any time for its disguise cost.) When this creature is turned face up, you may choose new targets for any number of other spells and/or abilities.

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Murders at Karlov Manor Commander (MKC) · Rare · Illustrated by Lars Grant-West

Frequently Asked

Why isn't there more data on this card?

Playgroup Live collects per-card gameplay data from real Commander games. Play counts appear once a card reaches 100 tracked games, and the full charts need a sample of at least 25 observed games that is not dominated by a single pilot. Until this card clears those bars you're seeing only the basic counts. Stats refresh nightly.

How is Playgroup Live card data collected?

Players using Playgroup Live import their decklists before a game and log card actions as they play. Each cast, zone change, and resolution is recorded as a real game event. Stats on this site are computed from those events, not from decklist scrapes or theorycrafting. Playgroup has recorded 720,000+ Commander games overall, and this card-level play data comes from the Playgroup Live seats playing virtual cards, a subset of that corpus.