Live Play Data

Brainstorm

· Instant · Avatar: The Last Airbender Eternal (TLE)

15%

Live Inclusion

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Times Brought

1023

Decks Running

588

Median Cast Turn

5.0

Drawn → Played

67%

Format

Multiplayer 1v1

67% of drawn Brainstorms are cast before the game ends, and decks that resolve it win at a 36% rate versus 23% when it stays buried, a +13.4 percentage-point lift across 198 observations.

Brainstorm sits in 15% of the tracked Commander decks on Playgroup Live. That figure reflects its restriction to blue color identities, not a lack of enthusiasm: 588 of 3865 distinct tracked decks run it, and every drawn copy lands in a hand that already wants to cast it.

The cast-vs-library win-rate gap is the most striking signal in the data. Decks that resolve Brainstorm win at 36%, a +13.4 percentage-point premium over the 23% baseline for participations where it never left the library. Both sample sizes are large enough to treat this as more than noise, though the dataset is still growing and the result should be read as a strong directional signal. Median first cast lands on turn 5.0, later than Legacy or Vintage would suggest, because Commander's 100-card singleton means fewer opening-hand hits.

The commander spread is notably wide. 436 distinct players have brought Brainstorm to a tracked game, and no single player accounts for more than a small sliver of total instances, which means the data reflects genuine cross-meta usage rather than one prolific pilot. Blue-inclusive commanders across tempo, control, and spellslinger archetypes all appear in the top slots.

At a glance

15% of tracked Commander decks include Brainstorm
67% of drawn copies are cast before the game ends
T5.0 median first-cast turn
+13.4pp win-rate lift when Brainstorm is cast vs. never leaving the library
436 distinct players have brought it to a tracked game, a well-spread dataset
56% of drawn-and-cast copies are cast the same turn they are drawn

First-cast turn

n=202

12%

10%

14%

11%

37%

T6-9

T10+

Median 5.0 P25 3 · P75 7 · max 19

On curve 12% (25 / 202 cast on T1) Cast same turn as drawn 56%

The "good card" funnel

1029 brought · 436 players

Brought to game

1029

Ever drawn

303

Reached battlefield

202

Still on board at game end

67%

Of 1029 Brainstorms brought to multiplayer games, 303 were drawn, 202 of those were cast, and nearly all resolved copies ended the game in the graveyard as expected for a one-shot instant.

≥ +6.7pp

Players who cast this card win 36% of the time (n=198) , vs 23% when it never left the library (n=642).

When players drew this card but left it in hand, they won 34% (n=96) — about the same as leaving it in the library. Those players survived long enough to draw it, so the gap above is about the card resolving, not just about surviving.

Observed gap +13.4pp; 95% confidence interval +6.7pp to +20.2pp. Correlational, not causal: powerful payoffs also get cast more often in games you are already winning.

Final zone distribution

335 instances

3.6%

Library

1.5%

Battlefield

62.4%

Graveyard

13.1%

Exile

The overwhelming majority of Brainstorm copies end the game in the graveyard, exactly where an instant resolving to the yard should land. The handful remaining in hand or exile reflect games that ended before they could be cast.

Commanders that played this card

in tracked games

The commander list spans Dimir, Izzet, Simic, Esper, Jeskai, and mono-blue, confirming Brainstorm is spread across the blue Commander meta rather than concentrated in a single archetype.

Frequently Asked

How often is Brainstorm drawn in a Commander game?

Across 937 tracked multiplayer games where Brainstorm was in the deck, it was drawn 29% of the time. That is above average for a 1-mana singleton in a 100-card deck, partly because many Brainstorm decks run extra draw and fetch effects that thin the library. Of 303 instances that reached a hand, 67% were cast before the game ended.

What turn does Brainstorm typically get cast in Commander?

Median first cast is turn 5.0 in multiplayer games tracked on Playgroup Live. The distribution is spread wide: a cluster of early casts in turns 1-3 from opening-hand copies, and a long tail running through the mid and late game. The p25 is turn 4 and the p75 is turn 7, so most casts fall in a fairly broad window. In duel Commander the median drops, reflecting faster game pacing.

Does casting Brainstorm actually correlate with winning?

In 198 participations where Brainstorm reached the stack, the caster's win rate was 36%. In 642 participations where it never left the library, the rate was 23%. The +13.4 percentage-point gap is a consistent early signal across this dataset. Win rates are normalized to a 4-player baseline. Sample sizes are solid but the dataset is still growing, so treat this as directional rather than a final verdict.

Is Brainstorm banned or restricted anywhere?

Brainstorm is restricted in Vintage (one copy per deck), banned in Historic and Premodern, and not legal in Modern, Pioneer, Standard, or Alchemy. It is fully legal in Commander, Legacy, Pauper, Timeless, Duel Commander, and several other formats. Its power is highest in formats with fetchlands, which is why Legacy and Vintage treat it differently than Commander does.

Why does Brainstorm have a lower on-curve cast rate in Commander?

Brainstorm costs 1 mana, so casting it on curve means turn 1. Only a fraction of copies are drawn in opening hands in a 100-card singleton deck, which pushes most casts well past turn 1. The low on-curve rate here is almost entirely a drawing-variance issue, not a signal that players are holding the card. The 56% same-turn cast rate confirms players slam it as soon as they draw it.

Which commanders most often pair with Brainstorm?

On Playgroup Live, Yuriko, the Tiger's Shadow leads the multiplayer top-commanders list with 12 decks, followed by Quandrix, the Proof and a cluster of blue-inclusive commanders at 7 decks each. The spread across Dimir, Simic, Izzet, Esper, and Jeskai color identities shows Brainstorm is not locked into a single archetype. Any blue commander that values card selection and hand sculpting is a natural home.